The recent Treasury and CBO data showing the fiscal 2026 deficit rose to $1.99 trillion from $1.78 trillion the prior year underpins the 92.5% trader consensus against near-term reduction. Spending climbed 6% to $7.4 trillion, driven by record interest costs of $1.36 trillion, higher outlays for Social Security, Medicare, and defense, while revenues grew only 3% amid the effects of the 2025 tax package and tariff refunds following the Supreme Court ruling. These structural pressures and policy outcomes, occurring in a growing economy with limited remaining calendar time before 2027, have produced the current implied probability reflected in market pricing.