Polymarket traders price a 96.2% implied probability on "No" for President Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, defined narrowly as the Monthly Treasury Statement reporting a lower December 2026 monthly deficit than September 2025's figure. This near-certain consensus stems from entrenched seasonal patterns—September typically posts surpluses from corporate tax payments, while December registers among the largest deficits due to holiday-related outlays and entitlements—compounded by the Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 baseline projecting FY2026 deficits at $1.9 trillion, exceeding FY2025's $1.8 trillion amid tax cut extensions, surging net interest costs nearing $1 trillion annually, and elevated defense spending. The April 2026 Treasury statement confirmed a $955 billion year-to-date deficit, down 9% year-over-year but on track for multi-trillion imbalances without austerity. Tail risks include an unforeseen revenue boom from tariffs or growth outperformance, or bipartisan spending caps before resolution; upcoming monthly Treasury releases will monitor fiscal flows.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयानया
नया
31 दिस, 2026
नया
नया
31 दिस, 2026
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Polymarket traders price a 96.2% implied probability on "No" for President Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, defined narrowly as the Monthly Treasury Statement reporting a lower December 2026 monthly deficit than September 2025's figure. This near-certain consensus stems from entrenched seasonal patterns—September typically posts surpluses from corporate tax payments, while December registers among the largest deficits due to holiday-related outlays and entitlements—compounded by the Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 baseline projecting FY2026 deficits at $1.9 trillion, exceeding FY2025's $1.8 trillion amid tax cut extensions, surging net interest costs nearing $1 trillion annually, and elevated defense spending. The April 2026 Treasury statement confirmed a $955 billion year-to-date deficit, down 9% year-over-year but on track for multi-trillion imbalances without austerity. Tail risks include an unforeseen revenue boom from tariffs or growth outperformance, or bipartisan spending caps before resolution; upcoming monthly Treasury releases will monitor fiscal flows.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,401समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Polymarket traders price a 96.2% implied probability on "No" for President Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, defined narrowly as the Monthly Treasury Statement reporting a lower December 2026 monthly deficit than September 2025's figure. This near-certain consensus stems from entrenched seasonal patterns—September typically posts surpluses from corporate tax payments, while December registers among the largest deficits due to holiday-related outlays and entitlements—compounded by the Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 baseline projecting FY2026 deficits at $1.9 trillion, exceeding FY2025's $1.8 trillion amid tax cut extensions, surging net interest costs nearing $1 trillion annually, and elevated defense spending. The April 2026 Treasury statement confirmed a $955 billion year-to-date deficit, down 9% year-over-year but on track for multi-trillion imbalances without austerity. Tail risks include an unforeseen revenue boom from tariffs or growth outperformance, or bipartisan spending caps before resolution; upcoming monthly Treasury releases will monitor fiscal flows.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
वॉल्यूम
$1,401समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 96.2% implied probability on "No" for President Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, defined narrowly as the Monthly Treasury Statement reporting a lower December 2026 monthly deficit than September 2025's figure. This near-certain consensus stems from entrenched seasonal patterns—September typically posts surpluses from corporate tax payments, while December registers among the largest deficits due to holiday-related outlays and entitlements—compounded by the Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 baseline projecting FY2026 deficits at $1.9 trillion, exceeding FY2025's $1.8 trillion amid tax cut extensions, surging net interest costs nearing $1 trillion annually, and elevated defense spending. The April 2026 Treasury statement confirmed a $955 billion year-to-date deficit, down 9% year-over-year but on track for multi-trillion imbalances without austerity. Tail risks include an unforeseen revenue boom from tariffs or growth outperformance, or bipartisan spending caps before resolution; upcoming monthly Treasury releases will monitor fiscal flows.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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