Traders assign Venezuela becoming the 51st U.S. state a 97.7% chance of failing by year-end 2026 because Article IV of the Constitution requires congressional approval, territorial status, and consent from the affected population—none of which exist. Venezuelan acting President Delcy Rodríguez has repeatedly rejected any such outcome, emphasizing national sovereignty and independence following the U.S. operation that removed Nicolás Maduro. President Trump’s repeated public comments, including Truth Social posts linking baseball victories and oil resources to statehood, produced no resolutions, treaties, or bilateral negotiations. Without scheduled votes, diplomatic agreements, or shifts in Venezuelan governance that could alter this baseline, the market reflects near-certainty that formal annexation will not occur before the resolution deadline.