Republican control of both chambers of Congress remains the dominant factor behind the 98.4% trader consensus against impeachment by December 31, 2026. With Republicans holding narrow majorities, House Democrats’ repeated resolutions have failed to advance, consistent with historical patterns of partisan voting on presidential accountability. The 2026 midterms, where Democrats are favored to capture the House, fall too late in the calendar for any new majority to organize and complete impeachment proceedings before year-end. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unforeseen bipartisan rupture over a major scandal, health crisis, or constitutional crisis prompting enough Republican defections, though current pricing reflects the high institutional and calendar barriers to such an outcome.