Presidential resignations remain exceptionally rare in U.S. history, with only one modern precedent, and current market pricing reflects the absence of any acute political, legal, or health developments that would compel Donald Trump to leave office before the end of 2026. Traders assign overwhelming probability to continuation based on his established pattern of completing terms, ongoing policy priorities, and lack of bipartisan momentum for removal proceedings. Structural factors such as term limits, Senate dynamics, and institutional norms further reinforce expectations that voluntary departure is unlikely absent extraordinary triggers. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include a significant medical event, a major scandal producing broad congressional support for impeachment and conviction, or an unanticipated personal decision, though none of these have materialized in recent months.