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icon for Alcatraz reopened in 2026?
Politik·Penjara

Alcatraz reopened in 2026?

icon for Alcatraz reopened in 2026?
Politik·Penjara

Alcatraz reopened in 2026?

3% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
3% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus around a 96.8% probability against Alcatraz reopening as a federal prison by the end of 2026 stems from persistent structural, legal, and logistical barriers. The island remains under National Park Service control with active $63.6 million structural and seismic restoration work scheduled through 2028, including closures of key cellhouse areas. President Trump's April 2026 budget request for $152 million in initial Federal Bureau of Prisons funding for fiscal year 2027 has not advanced to enacted appropriations or triggered any transfer of jurisdiction from the Department of the Interior. Local San Francisco officials have voiced uniform opposition, citing tourism impacts and the site's status as a National Historic Landmark, while full environmental reviews, infrastructure rebuilds, and congressional action would require far longer timelines than remain in 2026. Realistic shifts could occur only through unexpected emergency executive or legislative overrides before December, though no such measures have materialized amid competing priorities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,381
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus around a 96.8% probability against Alcatraz reopening as a federal prison by the end of 2026 stems from persistent structural, legal, and logistical barriers. The island remains under National Park Service control with active $63.6 million structural and seismic restoration work scheduled through 2028, including closures of key cellhouse areas. President Trump's April 2026 budget request for $152 million in initial Federal Bureau of Prisons funding for fiscal year 2027 has not advanced to enacted appropriations or triggered any transfer of jurisdiction from the Department of the Interior. Local San Francisco officials have voiced uniform opposition, citing tourism impacts and the site's status as a National Historic Landmark, while full environmental reviews, infrastructure rebuilds, and congressional action would require far longer timelines than remain in 2026. Realistic shifts could occur only through unexpected emergency executive or legislative overrides before December, though no such measures have materialized amid competing priorities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,381
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Alcatraz reopened in 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 3% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 3¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 3% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"Alcatraz reopened in 2026?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Apr 8, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "Alcatraz reopened in 2026?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Alcatraz reopened in 2026?" adalah 3% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 3% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Alcatraz reopened in 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.