Omar Aziz (PSD) holds an 83.5% implied probability in the Amazonas governor runoff market after leading the first round with 40.63% of valid votes and consistently topping post-October 4 surveys. Multiple October polls, including Quaest (51-37%), Real Time Big Data (46-41%, or 53-47 valid), Pontual (61-39 valid), and Projeta (58-42 valid), show Aziz ahead by 12-22 points in valid votes, driven by stronger interior support and prior executive experience as former governor and current senator. Professora Maria do Carmo (PL) at 14% trails despite lower rejection ratings and a narrower Manaus margin. The October 25 runoff timing and voter consolidation from eliminated first-round candidates, including Roberto Cidade, underpin trader consensus, though late shifts in turnout or undecided voters remain possible.