Traders assign a 94.5% probability against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027 primarily because of the lack of official announcements, supply-chain leaks, or credible reporting on a major hardware refresh in the next four months. The first-generation mixed-reality headset launched in early 2024, and Apple’s typical cycle for complex spatial-computing devices favors longer intervals while the company iterates on micro-OLED displays, M-series silicon, and software features. Recent attention has centered on minor updates and a rumored lower-cost model rather than a full second-generation product. A surprise announcement at an Apple event could still alter timelines, though historical patterns and current development signals point to a 2027 or later launch.