Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and Mythos 5 releases have established the current frontier on Humanity’s Last Exam, posting leading scores of 59–65% across major leaderboards as of mid-September 2026, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.4 variants (54–58%) and Meta’s Muse Spark series. The 2,500-question benchmark, focused on expert-level reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities with verifiable but non-retrievable answers, has seen scores climb rapidly from single digits in early 2025 to the mid-50s and higher through iterative gains in chain-of-thought, adaptive reasoning, tool use, and scaling. With three months remaining in 2026, trader attention centers on whether new model drops, ensemble methods, or further reasoning enhancements can push the annual high beyond 65%, amid ongoing competition among closed frontier labs.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$73,953 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
60%+
45%
65%+
29%
70%+
15%
75%+
13%
80%+
7%
90%+
5%
$73,953 Vol.
60%+
$42,984 Vol.
45%
65%+
$16,633 Vol.
29%
70%+
$6,485 Vol.
15%
75%+
$3,674 Vol.
13%
80%+
$1,710 Vol.
7%
90%+
$2,465 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and Mythos 5 releases have established the current frontier on Humanity’s Last Exam, posting leading scores of 59–65% across major leaderboards as of mid-September 2026, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.4 variants (54–58%) and Meta’s Muse Spark series. The 2,500-question benchmark, focused on expert-level reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities with verifiable but non-retrievable answers, has seen scores climb rapidly from single digits in early 2025 to the mid-50s and higher through iterative gains in chain-of-thought, adaptive reasoning, tool use, and scaling. With three months remaining in 2026, trader attention centers on whether new model drops, ensemble methods, or further reasoning enhancements can push the annual high beyond 65%, amid ongoing competition among closed frontier labs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$73,953Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and Mythos 5 releases have established the current frontier on Humanity’s Last Exam, posting leading scores of 59–65% across major leaderboards as of mid-September 2026, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.4 variants (54–58%) and Meta’s Muse Spark series. The 2,500-question benchmark, focused on expert-level reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities with verifiable but non-retrievable answers, has seen scores climb rapidly from single digits in early 2025 to the mid-50s and higher through iterative gains in chain-of-thought, adaptive reasoning, tool use, and scaling. With three months remaining in 2026, trader attention centers on whether new model drops, ensemble methods, or further reasoning enhancements can push the annual high beyond 65%, amid ongoing competition among closed frontier labs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$73,953Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and Mythos 5 releases have established the current frontier on Humanity’s Last Exam, posting leading scores of 59–65% across major leaderboards as of mid-September 2026, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.4 variants (54–58%) and Meta’s Muse Spark series. The 2,500-question benchmark, focused on expert-level reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities with verifiable but non-retrievable answers, has seen scores climb rapidly from single digits in early 2025 to the mid-50s and higher through iterative gains in chain-of-thought, adaptive reasoning, tool use, and scaling. With three months remaining in 2026, trader attention centers on whether new model drops, ensemble methods, or further reasoning enhancements can push the annual high beyond 65%, amid ongoing competition among closed frontier labs.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTerkait
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
77%
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
26%
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
87%
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