The Bank of England’s June 18 decision carries an 85.5% implied probability of no change at the current 3.75% base rate, reflecting the Monetary Policy Committee’s April 30 hold and its assessment that recent energy-driven inflation pressures remain contained for now. March 2026 CPI rose to 3.3% year-over-year, lifted by motor-fuel and utility costs tied to Middle East supply disruptions, yet core measures stayed near 3.1% while the labor market showed modest softening. Traders view the June meeting as too early for a 25-basis-point hike despite the Bank’s forward guidance on potential later tightening, with market-implied odds for any increase this month limited to 14.5%. Attention now turns to upcoming May inflation prints and any interim communications that could shift the near-term rate path.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBank of England decision in June?
No change 86%
25 bps increase 15%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$144,980 Vol.
$144,980 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
86%
25 bps increase
15%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 86%
25 bps increase 15%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$144,980 Vol.
$144,980 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
86%
25 bps increase
15%
50+ bps increase
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of England’s June 18 decision carries an 85.5% implied probability of no change at the current 3.75% base rate, reflecting the Monetary Policy Committee’s April 30 hold and its assessment that recent energy-driven inflation pressures remain contained for now. March 2026 CPI rose to 3.3% year-over-year, lifted by motor-fuel and utility costs tied to Middle East supply disruptions, yet core measures stayed near 3.1% while the labor market showed modest softening. Traders view the June meeting as too early for a 25-basis-point hike despite the Bank’s forward guidance on potential later tightening, with market-implied odds for any increase this month limited to 14.5%. Attention now turns to upcoming May inflation prints and any interim communications that could shift the near-term rate path.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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