The Bank of Russia's April 24 cut of its key rate by 50 basis points to 14.50 percent, the eighth consecutive easing move, has anchored trader expectations for a further decrease at the June 19 meeting. Recent inflation data at 5.7 percent year-over-year, combined with signs of economic contraction in early 2026 and the central bank's baseline forecast for an average key rate of 14.0-14.5 percent this year, support continued monetary easing to align with the 4 percent target by late 2027. Persistent pro-inflationary risks from fiscal stimulus and external uncertainties explain the modest 12.5 percent implied probability of no change, while an increase remains remote at 2.1 percent given the current disinflation trajectory.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBank of Russia decision in June?
Decrease 86%
No Change 13%
Increase 2.1%
$50,676 Vol.
$50,676 Vol.
Decrease
86%
No Change
13%
Increase
2%
Decrease 86%
No Change 13%
Increase 2.1%
$50,676 Vol.
$50,676 Vol.
Decrease
86%
No Change
13%
Increase
2%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 19, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Russia's April 24 cut of its key rate by 50 basis points to 14.50 percent, the eighth consecutive easing move, has anchored trader expectations for a further decrease at the June 19 meeting. Recent inflation data at 5.7 percent year-over-year, combined with signs of economic contraction in early 2026 and the central bank's baseline forecast for an average key rate of 14.0-14.5 percent this year, support continued monetary easing to align with the 4 percent target by late 2027. Persistent pro-inflationary risks from fiscal stimulus and external uncertainties explain the modest 12.5 percent implied probability of no change, while an increase remains remote at 2.1 percent given the current disinflation trajectory.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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