Recent polls show a fragmented field for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Linke, CDU, AfD, Grüne, and SPD each polling between roughly 13% and 21% and separated by just a few points. This tight clustering among five established parties raises the chance that minor shifts in turnout, especially among first-time 16- and 17-year-old voters or undecideds, can reorder the middle rankings. Current trader consensus assigns Grüne the highest probability of landing fourth, followed by AfD, Linke, and BSW, reflecting their positioning just behind the top three in latest surveys. The incumbent CDU–SPD coalition’s handling of infrastructure and energy issues has produced limited movement in the middle of the pack, while smaller parties such as FDP and FW remain marginal. Any late polling surge by one of the mid-tier contenders or unexpected coalition signals ahead of election day could quickly alter fourth-place probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBerlin State Election: 4th Place
Berlin State Election: 4th Place
Grüne 52%
AfD 17%
Linke 14%
BSW 14%
BARU
BARU
Sep 20, 2026
Grüne
52%
AfD
17%
Linke
14%
BSW
14%
FDP
10%
CDU
9%
SPD
8%
FW
11%
Grüne 52%
AfD 17%
Linke 14%
BSW 14%
BARU
BARU
Sep 20, 2026
Grüne
$1,367 Vol.
52%
AfD
$30 Vol.
17%
Linke
$40 Vol.
14%
BSW
$30 Vol.
14%
FDP
$71 Vol.
10%
CDU
$30 Vol.
9%
SPD
$30 Vol.
8%
FW
$78 Vol.
11%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls show a fragmented field for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Linke, CDU, AfD, Grüne, and SPD each polling between roughly 13% and 21% and separated by just a few points. This tight clustering among five established parties raises the chance that minor shifts in turnout, especially among first-time 16- and 17-year-old voters or undecideds, can reorder the middle rankings. Current trader consensus assigns Grüne the highest probability of landing fourth, followed by AfD, Linke, and BSW, reflecting their positioning just behind the top three in latest surveys. The incumbent CDU–SPD coalition’s handling of infrastructure and energy issues has produced limited movement in the middle of the pack, while smaller parties such as FDP and FW remain marginal. Any late polling surge by one of the mid-tier contenders or unexpected coalition signals ahead of election day could quickly alter fourth-place probabilities.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$1,586Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls show a fragmented field for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Linke, CDU, AfD, Grüne, and SPD each polling between roughly 13% and 21% and separated by just a few points. This tight clustering among five established parties raises the chance that minor shifts in turnout, especially among first-time 16- and 17-year-old voters or undecideds, can reorder the middle rankings. Current trader consensus assigns Grüne the highest probability of landing fourth, followed by AfD, Linke, and BSW, reflecting their positioning just behind the top three in latest surveys. The incumbent CDU–SPD coalition’s handling of infrastructure and energy issues has produced limited movement in the middle of the pack, while smaller parties such as FDP and FW remain marginal. Any late polling surge by one of the mid-tier contenders or unexpected coalition signals ahead of election day could quickly alter fourth-place probabilities.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$1,586Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show a fragmented field for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Linke, CDU, AfD, Grüne, and SPD each polling between roughly 13% and 21% and separated by just a few points. This tight clustering among five established parties raises the chance that minor shifts in turnout, especially among first-time 16- and 17-year-old voters or undecideds, can reorder the middle rankings. Current trader consensus assigns Grüne the highest probability of landing fourth, followed by AfD, Linke, and BSW, reflecting their positioning just behind the top three in latest surveys. The incumbent CDU–SPD coalition’s handling of infrastructure and energy issues has produced limited movement in the middle of the pack, while smaller parties such as FDP and FW remain marginal. Any late polling surge by one of the mid-tier contenders or unexpected coalition signals ahead of election day could quickly alter fourth-place probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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