China’s Q2 2026 GDP growth slowed to 4.3% year-over-year—below the 4.5% consensus and the lower bound of the official 4.5–5.0% annual target—primarily due to subdued household consumption, weak private investment, and the lingering property sector drag, despite resilient manufacturing exports tied to AI and high-tech sectors. This uneven recovery has anchored trader sentiment around the 4.3–4.9% range for Q3, with market-implied odds heavily favoring that band amid ongoing fiscal stimulus expectations and limited monetary easing room following the Iran-related oil shock. Leading indicators such as PMI readings and retail sales point to persistent domestic demand softness through mid-August, while export momentum and potential policy adjustments remain key swing factors ahead of the Q3 release.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui4.3-4.6% 49%
4.6-4.9% 37%
4.0-4.3% 12.0%
4.9-5.2% 2.4%
$26,751 Vol.
$26,751 Vol.
Oct 20, 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.3%
12%
4.3-4.6%
49%
4.6-4.9%
37%
4.9-5.2%
2%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
1%
4.3-4.6% 49%
4.6-4.9% 37%
4.0-4.3% 12.0%
4.9-5.2% 2.4%
$26,751 Vol.
$26,751 Vol.
Oct 20, 2026
<3.4%
$952 Vol.
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$666 Vol.
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$709 Vol.
<1%
4.0-4.3%
$1,630 Vol.
12%
4.3-4.6%
$10,019 Vol.
49%
4.6-4.9%
$7,996 Vol.
37%
4.9-5.2%
$2,841 Vol.
2%
5.2-5.5%
$899 Vol.
<1%
5.5%+
$1,040 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 GDP growth slowed to 4.3% year-over-year—below the 4.5% consensus and the lower bound of the official 4.5–5.0% annual target—primarily due to subdued household consumption, weak private investment, and the lingering property sector drag, despite resilient manufacturing exports tied to AI and high-tech sectors. This uneven recovery has anchored trader sentiment around the 4.3–4.9% range for Q3, with market-implied odds heavily favoring that band amid ongoing fiscal stimulus expectations and limited monetary easing room following the Iran-related oil shock. Leading indicators such as PMI readings and retail sales point to persistent domestic demand softness through mid-August, while export momentum and potential policy adjustments remain key swing factors ahead of the Q3 release.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$26,751Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 GDP growth slowed to 4.3% year-over-year—below the 4.5% consensus and the lower bound of the official 4.5–5.0% annual target—primarily due to subdued household consumption, weak private investment, and the lingering property sector drag, despite resilient manufacturing exports tied to AI and high-tech sectors. This uneven recovery has anchored trader sentiment around the 4.3–4.9% range for Q3, with market-implied odds heavily favoring that band amid ongoing fiscal stimulus expectations and limited monetary easing room following the Iran-related oil shock. Leading indicators such as PMI readings and retail sales point to persistent domestic demand softness through mid-August, while export momentum and potential policy adjustments remain key swing factors ahead of the Q3 release.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$26,751Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...China’s Q2 2026 GDP growth slowed to 4.3% year-over-year—below the 4.5% consensus and the lower bound of the official 4.5–5.0% annual target—primarily due to subdued household consumption, weak private investment, and the lingering property sector drag, despite resilient manufacturing exports tied to AI and high-tech sectors. This uneven recovery has anchored trader sentiment around the 4.3–4.9% range for Q3, with market-implied odds heavily favoring that band amid ongoing fiscal stimulus expectations and limited monetary easing room following the Iran-related oil shock. Leading indicators such as PMI readings and retail sales point to persistent domestic demand softness through mid-August, while export momentum and potential policy adjustments remain key swing factors ahead of the Q3 release.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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