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Pemilihan Umum·Irlandia

Pemenang Dublin - Central By - Election

icon for Pemenang Dublin - Central By - Election
Pemilihan Umum·Irlandia

Pemenang Dublin - Central By - Election

Daniel Ennis 74%

Janice Boylan 18.6%

Gerry Hutch 3.7%

Ray McAdam 1.7%

Polymarket

$1,069,190 Vol.

Daniel Ennis 74%

Janice Boylan 18.6%

Gerry Hutch 3.7%

Ray McAdam 1.7%

Polymarket

$1,069,190 Vol.

Daniel Ennis

$30,091 Vol.

74%

Janice Boylan

$16,854 Vol.

19%

Gerry Hutch

$503,225 Vol.

4%

Ray McAdam

$33,341 Vol.

2%

Janet Horner

$11,357 Vol.

1%

Gillian Sherratt

$181,994 Vol.

1%

Ian Noel Smyth

$12,758 Vol.

<1%

Mary Fitzpatrick

$44,489 Vol.

<1%

Malachy Steenson

$20,004 Vol.

<1%

Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin

$52,769 Vol.

<1%

Séamas McGrattan

$8,712 Vol.

<1%

John Stephens

$153,597 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis leads trader consensus at 74% implied probability for the Dublin Central Dáil by-election on May 22, driven by his strong local profile after topping polls in 2024 local elections and positive canvassing responses in working-class areas like Cabra and Stoneybatter, where cost-of-living concerns dominate over immigration. A recent revelation of his past role as company secretary for a firm fined over illegal cigarettes—though he was uninvolved and undeclared per rules—has not shifted odds significantly. Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan trails at 19% amid solid party support in leader Mary Lou McDonald's constituency, tempered by her fluoride comments on dental health prompting a rowback. Gangster Gerry Hutch garners 4% on anti-immigration rhetoric but faces barriers from his criminal history.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$1,069,190
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis leads trader consensus at 74% implied probability for the Dublin Central Dáil by-election on May 22, driven by his strong local profile after topping polls in 2024 local elections and positive canvassing responses in working-class areas like Cabra and Stoneybatter, where cost-of-living concerns dominate over immigration. A recent revelation of his past role as company secretary for a firm fined over illegal cigarettes—though he was uninvolved and undeclared per rules—has not shifted odds significantly. Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan trails at 19% amid solid party support in leader Mary Lou McDonald's constituency, tempered by her fluoride comments on dental health prompting a rowback. Gangster Gerry Hutch garners 4% on anti-immigration rhetoric but faces barriers from his criminal history.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$1,069,190
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Pemenang Dublin - Central By - Election" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 12 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Daniel Ennis" di 74%, diikuti oleh "Janice Boylan" di 19%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 74¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 74% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Pemenang Dublin - Central By - Election" telah menghasilkan $1.1 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Feb 20, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Pemenang Dublin - Central By - Election," jelajahi 12 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Pemenang Dublin - Central By - Election" adalah "Daniel Ennis" di 74%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 74% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Janice Boylan" di 19%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Pemenang Dublin - Central By - Election" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.