Skip to main content
icon for Pemenang Pemilu Parlemen Lebanon
Pemilihan Umum·Timur Tengah

Pemenang Pemilu Parlemen Lebanon

icon for Pemenang Pemilu Parlemen Lebanon
Pemilihan Umum·Timur Tengah

Pemenang Pemilu Parlemen Lebanon

Gerakan Amal (Amal) 7.4%

Lebanese Forces (LF) 5.2%

Partai Taqaddom 3.3%

Hezbollah (Hezb) 2.8%

Polymarket

$532,450 Vol.

Gerakan Amal (Amal) 7.4%

Lebanese Forces (LF) 5.2%

Partai Taqaddom 3.3%

Hezbollah (Hezb) 2.8%

Polymarket

$532,450 Vol.

Gerakan Amal (Amal)

$53,709 Vol.

7%

Lebanese Forces (LF)

$158,091 Vol.

5%

Partai Taqaddom

$6,113 Vol.

3%

Hezbollah (Hezb)

$44,038 Vol.

3%

ReLebanon

$3,307 Vol.

3%

Gerakan Marada (MM)

$3,796 Vol.

3%

Asosiasi Proyek Amal Islam (ICPA)

$4,398 Vol.

3%

Aliansi Watani (Watani)

$4,686 Vol.

2%

Gerakan Patriotik Bebas (FPM)

$74,483 Vol.

2%

Partai Kataeb (Kataeb)

$4,126 Vol.

1%

Union Party (UP)

$3,376 Vol.

1%

Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)

$4,584 Vol.

1%

Partai Liberal Nasional (NLP)

$5,135 Vol.

1%

Kelompok Islam (IG)

$3,585 Vol.

<1%

Partai Dialog Nasional (NDP)

$41,888 Vol.

<1%

Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)

$5,112 Vol.

<1%

Partai Mada (Mada)

$24,363 Vol.

<1%

Lana – Partai Sosial Demokrat (Lana)

$4,450 Vol.

<1%

Partai Sosialis Arab Ba'ath di Lebanon (Ba'ath)

$6,573 Vol.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$3,330 Vol.

<1%

Partai Sosialis Progresif (PSP)

$47,456 Vol.

<1%

Gerakan Kemerdekaan (IM)

$3,135 Vol.

<1%

Gerakan Martabat (DM)

$22,716 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's highly fragmented political landscape, shaped by its sectarian proportional representation system and ongoing regional conflict, keeps the parliamentary election winner market wide open. The recent two-year postponement of the 2026 vote amid renewed Israel-Hezbollah hostilities has delayed campaigning and alliance formation, leaving no bloc positioned for a clear plurality. Amal Movement holds a modest lead among traders on the strength of its entrenched Shia constituency and Speaker Nabih Berri's institutional role, while Lebanese Forces draws support from Christian voters opposed to Hezbollah influence. Smaller parties such as Taqaddom and ReLebanon reflect reformist and independent currents that remain divided. Consolidation behind any single outcome would likely require post-ceasefire coalition shifts, clearer diaspora voting rules, or major realignments among Sunni and Christian factions ahead of the rescheduled contest.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$532,450
Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's highly fragmented political landscape, shaped by its sectarian proportional representation system and ongoing regional conflict, keeps the parliamentary election winner market wide open. The recent two-year postponement of the 2026 vote amid renewed Israel-Hezbollah hostilities has delayed campaigning and alliance formation, leaving no bloc positioned for a clear plurality. Amal Movement holds a modest lead among traders on the strength of its entrenched Shia constituency and Speaker Nabih Berri's institutional role, while Lebanese Forces draws support from Christian voters opposed to Hezbollah influence. Smaller parties such as Taqaddom and ReLebanon reflect reformist and independent currents that remain divided. Consolidation behind any single outcome would likely require post-ceasefire coalition shifts, clearer diaspora voting rules, or major realignments among Sunni and Christian factions ahead of the rescheduled contest.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$532,450
Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.

Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Pemenang Pemilu Parlemen Lebanon" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 23 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Gerakan Amal (Amal)" di 7%, diikuti oleh "Lebanese Forces (LF)" di 5%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 7¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 7% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Pemenang Pemilu Parlemen Lebanon" telah menghasilkan $532.5K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jan 6, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Pemenang Pemilu Parlemen Lebanon," jelajahi 23 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Ini adalah pasar yang sangat terbuka. Pemimpin saat ini untuk "Pemenang Pemilu Parlemen Lebanon" adalah "Gerakan Amal (Amal)" di hanya 7%, dengan "Lebanese Forces (LF)" mengejar ketat di 5%. Tanpa hasil yang menguasai mayoritas kuat, trader melihat ini sebagai sangat tidak pasti, yang bisa menghadirkan peluang trading unik. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time, jadi tandai halaman ini untuk menyaksikan bagaimana probabilitas berkembang.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Pemenang Pemilu Parlemen Lebanon" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.