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Pemilihan Umum·Timur Tengah

Pemenang Pemilu Parlemen Lebanon

icon for Pemenang Pemilu Parlemen Lebanon
Pemilihan Umum·Timur Tengah

Pemenang Pemilu Parlemen Lebanon

Gerakan Amal (Amal) 2.1%

Asosiasi Proyek Amal Islam (ICPA) <1%

Lebanese Forces (LF) <1%

Partai Dialog Nasional (NDP) <1%

Polymarket

$666,219 Vol.

Gerakan Amal (Amal) 2.1%

Asosiasi Proyek Amal Islam (ICPA) <1%

Lebanese Forces (LF) <1%

Partai Dialog Nasional (NDP) <1%

Polymarket

$666,219 Vol.

Gerakan Amal (Amal)

$63,909 Vol.

2%

Asosiasi Proyek Amal Islam (ICPA)

$9,181 Vol.

<1%

Lebanese Forces (LF)

$167,783 Vol.

<1%

Partai Dialog Nasional (NDP)

$46,764 Vol.

<1%

Gerakan Patriotik Bebas (FPM)

$79,518 Vol.

<1%

Partai Taqaddom

$11,776 Vol.

<1%

Lana – Partai Sosial Demokrat (Lana)

$13,761 Vol.

<1%

Aliansi Watani (Watani)

$7,539 Vol.

<1%

Hezbollah (Hezb)

$52,901 Vol.

<1%

Partai Kataeb (Kataeb)

$7,370 Vol.

<1%

Gerakan Marada (MM)

$8,688 Vol.

<1%

Kelompok Islam (IG)

$8,631 Vol.

<1%

Partai Sosialis Arab Ba'ath di Lebanon (Ba'ath)

$10,710 Vol.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$9,477 Vol.

<1%

Partai Sosialis Progresif (PSP)

$55,015 Vol.

<1%

Gerakan Kemerdekaan (IM)

$8,894 Vol.

<1%

Partai Liberal Nasional (NLP)

$9,599 Vol.

<1%

Partai Mada (Mada)

$28,113 Vol.

<1%

Gerakan Martabat (DM)

$29,195 Vol.

<1%

ReLebanon

$9,819 Vol.

<1%

Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF)

$10,552 Vol.

<1%

Union Party (UP)

$7,760 Vol.

<1%

Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)

$9,264 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliamentary elections, originally set for May 2026, were postponed by two years in March 2026 amid escalation in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, pushing the vote to 2028 and extending the current parliament's term. This distant timeline and ongoing security challenges have left the field fragmented across more than twenty listed parties and movements, none positioned to secure an outright majority in the 128-seat chamber under the confessional system. Amal Movement holds the marginally higher share among listed options due to its established alliance ties, while independents, reformist groups, and traditional blocs like Lebanese Forces remain dispersed. Consolidation behind any single outcome would likely require a sustained ceasefire, new cross-sectarian coalitions, or shifts in voter registration trends among the diaspora ahead of candidate filings.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$666,219
Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliamentary elections, originally set for May 2026, were postponed by two years in March 2026 amid escalation in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, pushing the vote to 2028 and extending the current parliament's term. This distant timeline and ongoing security challenges have left the field fragmented across more than twenty listed parties and movements, none positioned to secure an outright majority in the 128-seat chamber under the confessional system. Amal Movement holds the marginally higher share among listed options due to its established alliance ties, while independents, reformist groups, and traditional blocs like Lebanese Forces remain dispersed. Consolidation behind any single outcome would likely require a sustained ceasefire, new cross-sectarian coalitions, or shifts in voter registration trends among the diaspora ahead of candidate filings.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$666,219
Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Terkait

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Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections?

39%
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Apakah Rusia Bersatu (ER) akan memenangkan kursi terbanyak dalam pemilihan parlemen Rusia berikutnya?

98%
Ya
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Will PI get the second-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Pemenang Pemilu Parlemen Lebanon" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 23 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Gerakan Amal (Amal)" di 2%, diikuti oleh "Asosiasi Proyek Amal Islam (ICPA)" di 0%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 2¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 2% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Pemenang Pemilu Parlemen Lebanon" telah menghasilkan $666.2K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jan 6, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Pemenang Pemilu Parlemen Lebanon," jelajahi 23 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Ini adalah pasar yang sangat terbuka. Pemimpin saat ini untuk "Pemenang Pemilu Parlemen Lebanon" adalah "Gerakan Amal (Amal)" di hanya 2%, dengan "Asosiasi Proyek Amal Islam (ICPA)" mengejar ketat di 0%. Tanpa hasil yang menguasai mayoritas kuat, trader melihat ini sebagai sangat tidak pasti, yang bisa menghadirkan peluang trading unik. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time, jadi tandai halaman ini untuk menyaksikan bagaimana probabilitas berkembang.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Pemenang Pemilu Parlemen Lebanon" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.