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Pemilihan Umum·Irlandia

Pemenang Dublin - Central By - Election

icon for Pemenang Dublin - Central By - Election
Pemilihan Umum·Irlandia

Pemenang Dublin - Central By - Election

Daniel Ennis 68%

Janice Boylan 18.8%

Gerry Hutch 11.6%

Ray McAdam 1.7%

Polymarket

$1,087,222 Vol.

Daniel Ennis 68%

Janice Boylan 18.8%

Gerry Hutch 11.6%

Ray McAdam 1.7%

Polymarket

$1,087,222 Vol.

Daniel Ennis

$33,324 Vol.

68%

Janice Boylan

$17,880 Vol.

19%

Gerry Hutch

$508,746 Vol.

12%

Ray McAdam

$34,450 Vol.

2%

Janet Horner

$13,848 Vol.

1%

Gillian Sherratt

$182,749 Vol.

1%

Malachy Steenson

$20,917 Vol.

1%

Ian Noel Smyth

$13,515 Vol.

<1%

Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin

$53,116 Vol.

<1%

Séamas McGrattan

$9,470 Vol.

<1%

Mary Fitzpatrick

$45,266 Vol.

<1%

John Stephens

$153,944 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Recent polling shows Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan holding a narrow first-preference lead in the Dublin Central by-election scheduled for 22 May, yet traders assign Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats the clearest path to victory through favorable transfers under the single transferable vote system. Ennis benefits from the constituency’s left-leaning profile established in the 2024 general election and from endorsements within progressive circles that position him ahead of eliminated candidates. Gerry Hutch’s independent challenge registers modest support but faces structural barriers tied to his public profile. Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam trails further amid broader government-party weakness in the constituency, while smaller candidates remain marginal. The outcome hinges on how second- and third-preference flows consolidate in the final counts.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$1,087,222
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Recent polling shows Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan holding a narrow first-preference lead in the Dublin Central by-election scheduled for 22 May, yet traders assign Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats the clearest path to victory through favorable transfers under the single transferable vote system. Ennis benefits from the constituency’s left-leaning profile established in the 2024 general election and from endorsements within progressive circles that position him ahead of eliminated candidates. Gerry Hutch’s independent challenge registers modest support but faces structural barriers tied to his public profile. Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam trails further amid broader government-party weakness in the constituency, while smaller candidates remain marginal. The outcome hinges on how second- and third-preference flows consolidate in the final counts.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$1,087,222
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Pemenang Dublin - Central By - Election" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 12 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Daniel Ennis" di 68%, diikuti oleh "Janice Boylan" di 19%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 68¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 68% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Pemenang Dublin - Central By - Election" telah menghasilkan $1.1 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Feb 20, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Pemenang Dublin - Central By - Election," jelajahi 12 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Pemenang Dublin - Central By - Election" adalah "Daniel Ennis" di 68%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 68% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Janice Boylan" di 19%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Pemenang Dublin - Central By - Election" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.