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Ekonomi·Kebijakan Ekonomi

GDP growth in 2026

icon for GDP growth in 2026
Ekonomi·Kebijakan Ekonomi

GDP growth in 2026

Jul 30

Jan 29, 2027

Jul 30

Jan 29, 2027

<0.5% 32.5%

2.0–2.5% 19%

0.5–1.0% 12.5%

1.0–1.5% 12.1%

Polymarket

$28,267 Vol.

<0.5% 32.5%

2.0–2.5% 19%

0.5–1.0% 12.5%

1.0–1.5% 12.1%

Polymarket

$28,267 Vol.

<0.5%

$3,906 Vol.

32%

0.5–1.0%

$15,332 Vol.

13%

1.0–1.5%

$1,562 Vol.

12%

1.5–2.0%

$1,534 Vol.

43%

2.0–2.5%

$1,846 Vol.

22%

>2.5%

$4,088 Vol.

35%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent first-quarter 2026 GDP data showing a 2.0% annualized rebound from the prior quarter’s government-shutdown-induced slowdown has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.5–2.0% range, currently priced at a 37% market-implied probability. Offsetting support for higher outcomes above 2.5% (34% odds) stems from fiscal measures including the 2025 reconciliation act and sustained AI-driven capital expenditures, which several institutional forecasts project could lift full-year growth to 2.2–2.6%. Countervailing pressures from elevated energy prices, tariff pass-through effects, and slower labor-force growth due to immigration policy changes keep the two leading ranges in close contest, with upcoming second-quarter data and FOMC communications expected to clarify whether momentum sustains above or reverts below the 2% threshold.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$28,267
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 29, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent first-quarter 2026 GDP data showing a 2.0% annualized rebound from the prior quarter’s government-shutdown-induced slowdown has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.5–2.0% range, currently priced at a 37% market-implied probability. Offsetting support for higher outcomes above 2.5% (34% odds) stems from fiscal measures including the 2025 reconciliation act and sustained AI-driven capital expenditures, which several institutional forecasts project could lift full-year growth to 2.2–2.6%. Countervailing pressures from elevated energy prices, tariff pass-through effects, and slower labor-force growth due to immigration policy changes keep the two leading ranges in close contest, with upcoming second-quarter data and FOMC communications expected to clarify whether momentum sustains above or reverts below the 2% threshold.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$28,267
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 29, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"GDP growth in 2026" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 6 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "1.5–2.0%" di 43%, diikuti oleh ">2.5%" di 35%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 43¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 43% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "GDP growth in 2026" telah menghasilkan $28.3K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Nov 12, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "GDP growth in 2026," jelajahi 6 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "GDP growth in 2026" adalah "1.5–2.0%" di 43%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 43% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah ">2.5%" di 35%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "GDP growth in 2026" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.