Recent National Weather Service forecasts for coastal Los Angeles point to a maximum near 81°F on August 2 amid typical marine layer influence and onshore flow, driving the 50.5% implied probability on the 80-81°F bin and 31.5% on 78-79°F. These outcomes align with climatological norms of 84°F average highs, tempered by Pacific cooling that limits inland heat penetration and keeps daily peaks in the low-to-mid 80s absent stronger offshore winds or ridging. Model consensus shows limited variability, with trader positioning reflecting high confidence in no significant warming trend through the short-range period. Updated guidance ahead of resolution could shift probabilities if afternoon clearing intensifies.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Los Angeles on August 2?
80-81°F 51%
78-79°F 32%
82-83°F 13%
77°F or below 7%
$14,853 Vol.
$14,853 Vol.
77°F or below
7%
78-79°F
32%
80-81°F
51%
82-83°F
13%
84-85°F
3%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 51%
78-79°F 32%
82-83°F 13%
77°F or below 7%
$14,853 Vol.
$14,853 Vol.
77°F or below
7%
78-79°F
32%
80-81°F
51%
82-83°F
13%
84-85°F
3%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 31, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts for coastal Los Angeles point to a maximum near 81°F on August 2 amid typical marine layer influence and onshore flow, driving the 50.5% implied probability on the 80-81°F bin and 31.5% on 78-79°F. These outcomes align with climatological norms of 84°F average highs, tempered by Pacific cooling that limits inland heat penetration and keeps daily peaks in the low-to-mid 80s absent stronger offshore winds or ridging. Model consensus shows limited variability, with trader positioning reflecting high confidence in no significant warming trend through the short-range period. Updated guidance ahead of resolution could shift probabilities if afternoon clearing intensifies.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui


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