Recent short-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS places Warsaw’s peak temperature on August 3 near 28–30°C under a broad high-pressure ridge, supporting the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes. Above-normal seasonal warmth linked to persistent European high pressure and residual El Niño teleconnections has sustained trader confidence in this range, while historical August maxima average 23–26°C. Key variables include exact timing of the daily peak, boundary-layer mixing, possible afternoon convective clouds, and minor model spread on 850 hPa temperatures. New 00z/12z runs and official Polish meteorological briefings over the next 48 hours remain the primary catalysts that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 3?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 3?
29°C 34%
30°C 23%
28°C 20%
31°C 18%
BARU
BARU
Aug 3, 2026
25°C or below
1%
26°C
3%
27°C
5%
28°C
20%
29°C
34%
30°C
23%
31°C
18%
32°C
4%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
29°C 34%
30°C 23%
28°C 20%
31°C 18%
BARU
BARU
Aug 3, 2026
25°C or below
$250 Vol.
1%
26°C
$20 Vol.
3%
27°C
$32 Vol.
5%
28°C
$40 Vol.
20%
29°C
$7 Vol.
34%
30°C
$9 Vol.
23%
31°C
$0 Vol.
18%
32°C
$0 Vol.
4%
33°C
$20 Vol.
1%
34°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS places Warsaw’s peak temperature on August 3 near 28–30°C under a broad high-pressure ridge, supporting the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes. Above-normal seasonal warmth linked to persistent European high pressure and residual El Niño teleconnections has sustained trader confidence in this range, while historical August maxima average 23–26°C. Key variables include exact timing of the daily peak, boundary-layer mixing, possible afternoon convective clouds, and minor model spread on 850 hPa temperatures. New 00z/12z runs and official Polish meteorological briefings over the next 48 hours remain the primary catalysts that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$412Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS places Warsaw’s peak temperature on August 3 near 28–30°C under a broad high-pressure ridge, supporting the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes. Above-normal seasonal warmth linked to persistent European high pressure and residual El Niño teleconnections has sustained trader confidence in this range, while historical August maxima average 23–26°C. Key variables include exact timing of the daily peak, boundary-layer mixing, possible afternoon convective clouds, and minor model spread on 850 hPa temperatures. New 00z/12z runs and official Polish meteorological briefings over the next 48 hours remain the primary catalysts that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$412Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS places Warsaw’s peak temperature on August 3 near 28–30°C under a broad high-pressure ridge, supporting the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes. Above-normal seasonal warmth linked to persistent European high pressure and residual El Niño teleconnections has sustained trader confidence in this range, while historical August maxima average 23–26°C. Key variables include exact timing of the daily peak, boundary-layer mixing, possible afternoon convective clouds, and minor model spread on 850 hPa temperatures. New 00z/12z runs and official Polish meteorological briefings over the next 48 hours remain the primary catalysts that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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