Ensemble forecasts from global models position Wuhan’s August 4 peak in the mid-30s Celsius amid persistent subtropical ridging, high humidity, and weak steering flow that favors daytime heating. Trader clustering around 36–38 °C reflects this consensus while acknowledging spread in afternoon convective timing—isolated thunderstorms could shave 1–2 °C off the maximum, whereas clearer skies would push readings toward 38 °C. Historical early-August baselines near 34–36 °C, combined with current soil moisture and urban heat-island effects, further narrow the plausible range and explain why outcomes outside 35–39 °C carry low implied probability ahead of the next model updates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Wuhan on August 4?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 4?
37°C 33%
38°C 27%
36°C 18%
35°C 11%
BARU
BARU
Aug 4, 2026
32°C or below
1%
33°C
2%
34°C
10%
35°C
11%
36°C
18%
37°C
33%
38°C
27%
39°C
6%
40°C
3%
41°C
1%
42°C or higher
2%
37°C 33%
38°C 27%
36°C 18%
35°C 11%
BARU
BARU
Aug 4, 2026
32°C or below
$15 Vol.
1%
33°C
$11 Vol.
2%
34°C
$0 Vol.
10%
35°C
$0 Vol.
11%
36°C
$0 Vol.
18%
37°C
$0 Vol.
33%
38°C
$21 Vol.
27%
39°C
$0 Vol.
6%
40°C
$0 Vol.
3%
41°C
$31 Vol.
1%
42°C or higher
$15 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from global models position Wuhan’s August 4 peak in the mid-30s Celsius amid persistent subtropical ridging, high humidity, and weak steering flow that favors daytime heating. Trader clustering around 36–38 °C reflects this consensus while acknowledging spread in afternoon convective timing—isolated thunderstorms could shave 1–2 °C off the maximum, whereas clearer skies would push readings toward 38 °C. Historical early-August baselines near 34–36 °C, combined with current soil moisture and urban heat-island effects, further narrow the plausible range and explain why outcomes outside 35–39 °C carry low implied probability ahead of the next model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$93Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from global models position Wuhan’s August 4 peak in the mid-30s Celsius amid persistent subtropical ridging, high humidity, and weak steering flow that favors daytime heating. Trader clustering around 36–38 °C reflects this consensus while acknowledging spread in afternoon convective timing—isolated thunderstorms could shave 1–2 °C off the maximum, whereas clearer skies would push readings toward 38 °C. Historical early-August baselines near 34–36 °C, combined with current soil moisture and urban heat-island effects, further narrow the plausible range and explain why outcomes outside 35–39 °C carry low implied probability ahead of the next model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$93Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from global models position Wuhan’s August 4 peak in the mid-30s Celsius amid persistent subtropical ridging, high humidity, and weak steering flow that favors daytime heating. Trader clustering around 36–38 °C reflects this consensus while acknowledging spread in afternoon convective timing—isolated thunderstorms could shave 1–2 °C off the maximum, whereas clearer skies would push readings toward 38 °C. Historical early-August baselines near 34–36 °C, combined with current soil moisture and urban heat-island effects, further narrow the plausible range and explain why outcomes outside 35–39 °C carry low implied probability ahead of the next model updates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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