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Keuangan·Jerome Powell

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

icon for How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Keuangan·Jerome Powell

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$215,469 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$215,469 Vol.

Polymarket

4.6%

$37,793 Vol.

97%

4.8%

$47,611 Vol.

45%

5.0%

$49,754 Vol.

27%

5.2%

$9,115 Vol.

10%

5.5%

$1,448 Vol.

7%

5.7%

$3,229 Vol.

6%

6.0%

$2,128 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings, including April CPI and producer prices, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.59% as of May 15, 2026, its highest level in nearly 10 months and up roughly 20 basis points in the past week. Persistent price pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with elevated fiscal deficits and steady Treasury supply, are supporting higher term premiums and limiting expectations for aggressive monetary easing. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%–3.75%, traders are watching upcoming labor market data, retail sales, and any shifts in FOMC guidance for signals on whether yields could test 4.75% or higher before year-end, while structural factors like potential tariff impacts continue to influence long-term rate expectations through 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$215,469
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Hasil diajukan: Yes

Tidak ada sengketa

Hasil akhir: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings, including April CPI and producer prices, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.59% as of May 15, 2026, its highest level in nearly 10 months and up roughly 20 basis points in the past week. Persistent price pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with elevated fiscal deficits and steady Treasury supply, are supporting higher term premiums and limiting expectations for aggressive monetary easing. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%–3.75%, traders are watching upcoming labor market data, retail sales, and any shifts in FOMC guidance for signals on whether yields could test 4.75% or higher before year-end, while structural factors like potential tariff impacts continue to influence long-term rate expectations through 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$215,469
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Hasil diajukan: Yes

Tidak ada sengketa

Hasil akhir: Yes

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 10 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "4.3%" di 100%, diikuti oleh "4.4%" di 100%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 100¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 100% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?" telah menghasilkan $215.5K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Nov 12, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?," jelajahi 10 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?" adalah "4.3%" di 100%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 100% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "4.4%" di 100%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.