SpaceX has yet to complete a single Starship launch in 2026 as of mid-May, with Flight 12—the first V3 vehicle featuring upgraded Raptor engines and a new Starbase pad—now targeted for May 19 after repeated slips. Only five integrated flights occurred across all of 2025 amid ongoing anomalies, hardware testing, and regulatory reviews, establishing a pattern of deliberate iteration rather than rapid cadence. New infrastructure such as Pad 2 and expanded production capacity must come online while demonstrating orbital refueling and booster catch reliability, factors that historically limit yearly totals to single digits during major vehicle transitions. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to fewer than five successful space-reaching launches this year, with five-to-six remaining the next most favored outcome.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBerapa banyak SpaceX Starship yang diluncurkan mencapai ruang angkasa pada tahun 2026?
Berapa banyak SpaceX Starship yang diluncurkan mencapai ruang angkasa pada tahun 2026?
<5 51%
5-6 32%
>16 4.1%
7-8 4.0%
$450,036 Vol.
$450,036 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
51%
5-6
26%
7-8
4%
9-10
2%
11-12
2%
13-14
1%
15-16
2%
>16
4%
<5 51%
5-6 32%
>16 4.1%
7-8 4.0%
$450,036 Vol.
$450,036 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
$90,622 Vol.
51%
5-6
$108,327 Vol.
26%
7-8
$152,207 Vol.
4%
9-10
$55,882 Vol.
2%
11-12
$3,765 Vol.
2%
13-14
$4,747 Vol.
1%
15-16
$25,181 Vol.
2%
>16
$9,304 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX has yet to complete a single Starship launch in 2026 as of mid-May, with Flight 12—the first V3 vehicle featuring upgraded Raptor engines and a new Starbase pad—now targeted for May 19 after repeated slips. Only five integrated flights occurred across all of 2025 amid ongoing anomalies, hardware testing, and regulatory reviews, establishing a pattern of deliberate iteration rather than rapid cadence. New infrastructure such as Pad 2 and expanded production capacity must come online while demonstrating orbital refueling and booster catch reliability, factors that historically limit yearly totals to single digits during major vehicle transitions. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to fewer than five successful space-reaching launches this year, with five-to-six remaining the next most favored outcome.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$450,036Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX has yet to complete a single Starship launch in 2026 as of mid-May, with Flight 12—the first V3 vehicle featuring upgraded Raptor engines and a new Starbase pad—now targeted for May 19 after repeated slips. Only five integrated flights occurred across all of 2025 amid ongoing anomalies, hardware testing, and regulatory reviews, establishing a pattern of deliberate iteration rather than rapid cadence. New infrastructure such as Pad 2 and expanded production capacity must come online while demonstrating orbital refueling and booster catch reliability, factors that historically limit yearly totals to single digits during major vehicle transitions. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to fewer than five successful space-reaching launches this year, with five-to-six remaining the next most favored outcome.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$450,036Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX has yet to complete a single Starship launch in 2026 as of mid-May, with Flight 12—the first V3 vehicle featuring upgraded Raptor engines and a new Starbase pad—now targeted for May 19 after repeated slips. Only five integrated flights occurred across all of 2025 amid ongoing anomalies, hardware testing, and regulatory reviews, establishing a pattern of deliberate iteration rather than rapid cadence. New infrastructure such as Pad 2 and expanded production capacity must come online while demonstrating orbital refueling and booster catch reliability, factors that historically limit yearly totals to single digits during major vehicle transitions. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to fewer than five successful space-reaching launches this year, with five-to-six remaining the next most favored outcome.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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