Italy's nuclear framework bill cleared the Chamber of Deputies in early June 2026 but has recorded no Senate action since, leaving the upper house with limited time before the August 31 cutoff. Parliament entered its summer recess at the end of July, a standard procedural break that halts routine legislative business and reduces the window for final passage. Government statements earlier in the year targeted Senate approval ahead of that recess, yet the absence of committee reports, floor scheduling, or public updates through mid-August has reinforced trader consensus around non-approval. The 98.5% implied probability on "No" reflects this calendar constraint and the low likelihood of an extraordinary session in the remaining weeks. A sudden recall of the Senate for an emergency vote or bundling into another measure could still shift the outcome, though no such developments have been signaled.