Japan’s core CPI (excluding fresh food) has printed at 1.4–1.6% YoY through mid-2026, remaining below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target amid government energy subsidies that have offset earlier food-price pressures. Recent oil-price spikes from Middle East tensions are now feeding into forecasts, with the BoJ’s July 2026 Outlook projecting acceleration above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026 and an upward revision to its FY2026 core projection toward 2%. IMF and consensus estimates anticipate further moderation for the calendar year overall before a rebound in 2027, reflecting easing global commodities, sticky underlying “core-core” measures near 2.5%, and a tight labor market supporting wage growth. With the two leading Polymarket bins essentially tied, trader sentiment hinges on whether subsidy effects and base comparisons keep the annual outcome at or below 1.9% versus the impact of higher energy costs and BoJ tightening pushing it into the 2.0–2.4% range.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui≤1.9% 49.0%
2.0-2.4% 48%
2.5-2.9% 1.4%
3.0-3.4% <1%
$37,290 Vol.
$37,290 Vol.
Jan 22, 2027
≤1.9%
49%
2.0-2.4%
48%
2.5-2.9%
1%
3.0-3.4%
1%
3.5-3.9%
<1%
4.0%+
<1%
≤1.9% 49.0%
2.0-2.4% 48%
2.5-2.9% 1.4%
3.0-3.4% <1%
$37,290 Vol.
$37,290 Vol.
Jan 22, 2027
≤1.9%
$18,007 Vol.
49%
2.0-2.4%
$10,631 Vol.
48%
2.5-2.9%
$5,149 Vol.
1%
3.0-3.4%
$1,322 Vol.
1%
3.5-3.9%
$840 Vol.
<1%
4.0%+
$1,339 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Japan’s core CPI (excluding fresh food) has printed at 1.4–1.6% YoY through mid-2026, remaining below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target amid government energy subsidies that have offset earlier food-price pressures. Recent oil-price spikes from Middle East tensions are now feeding into forecasts, with the BoJ’s July 2026 Outlook projecting acceleration above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026 and an upward revision to its FY2026 core projection toward 2%. IMF and consensus estimates anticipate further moderation for the calendar year overall before a rebound in 2027, reflecting easing global commodities, sticky underlying “core-core” measures near 2.5%, and a tight labor market supporting wage growth. With the two leading Polymarket bins essentially tied, trader sentiment hinges on whether subsidy effects and base comparisons keep the annual outcome at or below 1.9% versus the impact of higher energy costs and BoJ tightening pushing it into the 2.0–2.4% range.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$37,290Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 22, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Japan’s core CPI (excluding fresh food) has printed at 1.4–1.6% YoY through mid-2026, remaining below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target amid government energy subsidies that have offset earlier food-price pressures. Recent oil-price spikes from Middle East tensions are now feeding into forecasts, with the BoJ’s July 2026 Outlook projecting acceleration above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026 and an upward revision to its FY2026 core projection toward 2%. IMF and consensus estimates anticipate further moderation for the calendar year overall before a rebound in 2027, reflecting easing global commodities, sticky underlying “core-core” measures near 2.5%, and a tight labor market supporting wage growth. With the two leading Polymarket bins essentially tied, trader sentiment hinges on whether subsidy effects and base comparisons keep the annual outcome at or below 1.9% versus the impact of higher energy costs and BoJ tightening pushing it into the 2.0–2.4% range.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$37,290Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 22, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan’s core CPI (excluding fresh food) has printed at 1.4–1.6% YoY through mid-2026, remaining below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target amid government energy subsidies that have offset earlier food-price pressures. Recent oil-price spikes from Middle East tensions are now feeding into forecasts, with the BoJ’s July 2026 Outlook projecting acceleration above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026 and an upward revision to its FY2026 core projection toward 2%. IMF and consensus estimates anticipate further moderation for the calendar year overall before a rebound in 2027, reflecting easing global commodities, sticky underlying “core-core” measures near 2.5%, and a tight labor market supporting wage growth. With the two leading Polymarket bins essentially tied, trader sentiment hinges on whether subsidy effects and base comparisons keep the annual outcome at or below 1.9% versus the impact of higher energy costs and BoJ tightening pushing it into the 2.0–2.4% range.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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