Traders assign the highest implied probability (46.5%) to Japan’s Q2 2026 annualized GDP growth falling in the 0.0–0.8% range ahead of the August 16 preliminary release, reflecting expectations of a sharp moderation from Q1’s 1.8% annualized pace. That Q1 outcome was driven by firmer private consumption, stronger exports, and a rebound in public investment, yet business capital spending contracted amid elevated borrowing costs and softer corporate sentiment. Recent Bank of Japan communications, including unchanged policy rates and hawkish guidance in July, alongside global uncertainty and potential yen-driven import pressures, have reinforced views that domestic demand and net trade may deliver weaker sequential momentum in Q2. The 1.6–2.4% band holds 27.5% odds, highlighting the market’s focus on whether consumption and export resilience can offset these headwinds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui0.0%–0.8% 47%
1.6%–2.4% 27.5%
0.8%–1.6% 22%
2.4%–3.2% 6.6%
$45,547 Vol.
$45,547 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
<-2.4%
1%
-2.4%– -1.6%
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
1%
-0.8%–0.0%
4%
0.0%–0.8%
47%
0.8%–1.6%
22%
1.6%–2.4%
28%
2.4%–3.2%
7%
3.2%–4.0%
3%
4.0%+
1%
0.0%–0.8% 47%
1.6%–2.4% 27.5%
0.8%–1.6% 22%
2.4%–3.2% 6.6%
$45,547 Vol.
$45,547 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
<-2.4%
$1,628 Vol.
1%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$2,792 Vol.
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$2,558 Vol.
1%
-0.8%–0.0%
$2,135 Vol.
4%
0.0%–0.8%
$15,850 Vol.
47%
0.8%–1.6%
$13,104 Vol.
22%
1.6%–2.4%
$1,764 Vol.
28%
2.4%–3.2%
$3,726 Vol.
7%
3.2%–4.0%
$1,137 Vol.
3%
4.0%+
$853 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTraders assign the highest implied probability (46.5%) to Japan’s Q2 2026 annualized GDP growth falling in the 0.0–0.8% range ahead of the August 16 preliminary release, reflecting expectations of a sharp moderation from Q1’s 1.8% annualized pace. That Q1 outcome was driven by firmer private consumption, stronger exports, and a rebound in public investment, yet business capital spending contracted amid elevated borrowing costs and softer corporate sentiment. Recent Bank of Japan communications, including unchanged policy rates and hawkish guidance in July, alongside global uncertainty and potential yen-driven import pressures, have reinforced views that domestic demand and net trade may deliver weaker sequential momentum in Q2. The 1.6–2.4% band holds 27.5% odds, highlighting the market’s focus on whether consumption and export resilience can offset these headwinds.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Pasar Dibuka: May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
Volume
$45,547Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTraders assign the highest implied probability (46.5%) to Japan’s Q2 2026 annualized GDP growth falling in the 0.0–0.8% range ahead of the August 16 preliminary release, reflecting expectations of a sharp moderation from Q1’s 1.8% annualized pace. That Q1 outcome was driven by firmer private consumption, stronger exports, and a rebound in public investment, yet business capital spending contracted amid elevated borrowing costs and softer corporate sentiment. Recent Bank of Japan communications, including unchanged policy rates and hawkish guidance in July, alongside global uncertainty and potential yen-driven import pressures, have reinforced views that domestic demand and net trade may deliver weaker sequential momentum in Q2. The 1.6–2.4% band holds 27.5% odds, highlighting the market’s focus on whether consumption and export resilience can offset these headwinds.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$45,547Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probability (46.5%) to Japan’s Q2 2026 annualized GDP growth falling in the 0.0–0.8% range ahead of the August 16 preliminary release, reflecting expectations of a sharp moderation from Q1’s 1.8% annualized pace. That Q1 outcome was driven by firmer private consumption, stronger exports, and a rebound in public investment, yet business capital spending contracted amid elevated borrowing costs and softer corporate sentiment. Recent Bank of Japan communications, including unchanged policy rates and hawkish guidance in July, alongside global uncertainty and potential yen-driven import pressures, have reinforced views that domestic demand and net trade may deliver weaker sequential momentum in Q2. The 1.6–2.4% band holds 27.5% odds, highlighting the market’s focus on whether consumption and export resilience can offset these headwinds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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