Major U.S. banks' robust capitalization underpins the 93.5% market-implied odds against a bailout before 2027. The Federal Reserve's June 2026 stress tests showed all 32 large institutions absorbing $708 billion in hypothetical losses from a severe recession—with unemployment at 10%, commercial real estate prices down 39%, and home prices falling 30%—while aggregate CET1 ratios declined just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2%, remaining well above the 4.5% minimum plus buffers. Current stress capital buffers are frozen through 2027 pending model revisions. This resilience, backed by elevated interest income and post-crisis reforms, reflects trader consensus on systemic stability. Still, extreme tail risks such as a deeper downturn exceeding modeled scenarios or contagion from smaller institutions could alter outcomes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiMajor U.S. bank bailout before 2027?
Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?
7% peluang
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
7% peluang
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.Major U.S. banks' robust capitalization underpins the 93.5% market-implied odds against a bailout before 2027. The Federal Reserve's June 2026 stress tests showed all 32 large institutions absorbing $708 billion in hypothetical losses from a severe recession—with unemployment at 10%, commercial real estate prices down 39%, and home prices falling 30%—while aggregate CET1 ratios declined just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2%, remaining well above the 4.5% minimum plus buffers. Current stress capital buffers are frozen through 2027 pending model revisions. This resilience, backed by elevated interest income and post-crisis reforms, reflects trader consensus on systemic stability. Still, extreme tail risks such as a deeper downturn exceeding modeled scenarios or contagion from smaller institutions could alter outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ET
Volume
$4,183Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.Major U.S. banks' robust capitalization underpins the 93.5% market-implied odds against a bailout before 2027. The Federal Reserve's June 2026 stress tests showed all 32 large institutions absorbing $708 billion in hypothetical losses from a severe recession—with unemployment at 10%, commercial real estate prices down 39%, and home prices falling 30%—while aggregate CET1 ratios declined just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2%, remaining well above the 4.5% minimum plus buffers. Current stress capital buffers are frozen through 2027 pending model revisions. This resilience, backed by elevated interest income and post-crisis reforms, reflects trader consensus on systemic stability. Still, extreme tail risks such as a deeper downturn exceeding modeled scenarios or contagion from smaller institutions could alter outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
Volume
$4,183Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Major U.S. banks' robust capitalization underpins the 93.5% market-implied odds against a bailout before 2027. The Federal Reserve's June 2026 stress tests showed all 32 large institutions absorbing $708 billion in hypothetical losses from a severe recession—with unemployment at 10%, commercial real estate prices down 39%, and home prices falling 30%—while aggregate CET1 ratios declined just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2%, remaining well above the 4.5% minimum plus buffers. Current stress capital buffers are frozen through 2027 pending model revisions. This resilience, backed by elevated interest income and post-crisis reforms, reflects trader consensus on systemic stability. Still, extreme tail risks such as a deeper downturn exceeding modeled scenarios or contagion from smaller institutions could alter outcomes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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