Recent New Zealand polls show Labour and National locked in a tight contest for the November 7 party list vote, with both parties at or near 28% in the latest 1News-Verian survey and several others from September. Support for the two largest parties has fallen to multi-year lows as the Greens reach record levels near 16% and other minor parties gain ground, fragmenting the electorate ahead of the election. Labour has held a narrow edge or tie in most recent aggregates, supporting the current trader consensus on its probability of leading the party vote share. Parliament's dissolution on October 1 has intensified campaigning, with coalition dynamics and undecided voters adding uncertainty to the final outcome.