U.S. President Donald Trump's May 8 announcement of a three-day ceasefire and 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner swap, effective May 9–11 and publicly affirmed by both Moscow and Kyiv, has emerged as the dominant recent catalyst in trader assessments of a formal Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement. This U.S.-brokered pause coincided with Russia's Victory Day commemorations and followed weeks of shuttle diplomacy, including Geneva trilateral talks where negotiators advanced technical details on ceasefire monitoring while remaining deadlocked on territorial and security provisions. Both sides have since traded accusations of violations, yet the mutual public commitments and humanitarian exchanges represent the clearest de-escalation signal since earlier short-term truces. Ongoing U.S. pressure for extensions, coupled with statements from Russian and Ukrainian officials signaling openness to broader talks, continues to shape expectations ahead of the May 31 resolution window.
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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
$655,116 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
May 31
3%
June 30
12%
October 31
38%
December 31
51%
$655,116 Vol.
May 31
$278,277 Vol.
3%
June 30
$197,638 Vol.
12%
October 31
$57,065 Vol.
38%
December 31
$122,135 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. President Donald Trump's May 8 announcement of a three-day ceasefire and 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner swap, effective May 9–11 and publicly affirmed by both Moscow and Kyiv, has emerged as the dominant recent catalyst in trader assessments of a formal Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement. This U.S.-brokered pause coincided with Russia's Victory Day commemorations and followed weeks of shuttle diplomacy, including Geneva trilateral talks where negotiators advanced technical details on ceasefire monitoring while remaining deadlocked on territorial and security provisions. Both sides have since traded accusations of violations, yet the mutual public commitments and humanitarian exchanges represent the clearest de-escalation signal since earlier short-term truces. Ongoing U.S. pressure for extensions, coupled with statements from Russian and Ukrainian officials signaling openness to broader talks, continues to shape expectations ahead of the May 31 resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Volume
$655,116Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. President Donald Trump's May 8 announcement of a three-day ceasefire and 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner swap, effective May 9–11 and publicly affirmed by both Moscow and Kyiv, has emerged as the dominant recent catalyst in trader assessments of a formal Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement. This U.S.-brokered pause coincided with Russia's Victory Day commemorations and followed weeks of shuttle diplomacy, including Geneva trilateral talks where negotiators advanced technical details on ceasefire monitoring while remaining deadlocked on territorial and security provisions. Both sides have since traded accusations of violations, yet the mutual public commitments and humanitarian exchanges represent the clearest de-escalation signal since earlier short-term truces. Ongoing U.S. pressure for extensions, coupled with statements from Russian and Ukrainian officials signaling openness to broader talks, continues to shape expectations ahead of the May 31 resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$655,116Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. President Donald Trump's May 8 announcement of a three-day ceasefire and 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner swap, effective May 9–11 and publicly affirmed by both Moscow and Kyiv, has emerged as the dominant recent catalyst in trader assessments of a formal Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement. This U.S.-brokered pause coincided with Russia's Victory Day commemorations and followed weeks of shuttle diplomacy, including Geneva trilateral talks where negotiators advanced technical details on ceasefire monitoring while remaining deadlocked on territorial and security provisions. Both sides have since traded accusations of violations, yet the mutual public commitments and humanitarian exchanges represent the clearest de-escalation signal since earlier short-term truces. Ongoing U.S. pressure for extensions, coupled with statements from Russian and Ukrainian officials signaling openness to broader talks, continues to shape expectations ahead of the May 31 resolution window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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