A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models projecting a very strong peak near +3.5–4°C later in 2026, forms the main driver of trader sentiment alongside long-term anthropogenic warming. Global ocean heat content remains elevated, yet the typical multi-month lag in El Niño’s surface-temperature response means September may capture only partial influence, leaving outcomes closely balanced between top-three and fourth-or-lower rankings. Recent model runs and agency outlooks show above-average but not uniformly record September temperatures, while year-to-date 2026 anomalies sit near prior warm years without a decisive edge. Uncertainty in exact September anomalies and inter-dataset differences sustain the tight market-implied odds near 47–48 percent.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiSeptember 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest 49%
2nd hottest 43%
3rd hottest 43%
4th or lower 42%
BARU
BARU
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
49%
2nd hottest
43%
3rd hottest
43%
4th or lower
42%
1st hottest 49%
2nd hottest 43%
3rd hottest 43%
4th or lower 42%
BARU
BARU
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
$0 Vol.
49%
2nd hottest
$0 Vol.
43%
3rd hottest
$0 Vol.
43%
4th or lower
$0 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models projecting a very strong peak near +3.5–4°C later in 2026, forms the main driver of trader sentiment alongside long-term anthropogenic warming. Global ocean heat content remains elevated, yet the typical multi-month lag in El Niño’s surface-temperature response means September may capture only partial influence, leaving outcomes closely balanced between top-three and fourth-or-lower rankings. Recent model runs and agency outlooks show above-average but not uniformly record September temperatures, while year-to-date 2026 anomalies sit near prior warm years without a decisive edge. Uncertainty in exact September anomalies and inter-dataset differences sustain the tight market-implied odds near 47–48 percent.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models projecting a very strong peak near +3.5–4°C later in 2026, forms the main driver of trader sentiment alongside long-term anthropogenic warming. Global ocean heat content remains elevated, yet the typical multi-month lag in El Niño’s surface-temperature response means September may capture only partial influence, leaving outcomes closely balanced between top-three and fourth-or-lower rankings. Recent model runs and agency outlooks show above-average but not uniformly record September temperatures, while year-to-date 2026 anomalies sit near prior warm years without a decisive edge. Uncertainty in exact September anomalies and inter-dataset differences sustain the tight market-implied odds near 47–48 percent.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and models projecting a very strong peak near +3.5–4°C later in 2026, forms the main driver of trader sentiment alongside long-term anthropogenic warming. Global ocean heat content remains elevated, yet the typical multi-month lag in El Niño’s surface-temperature response means September may capture only partial influence, leaving outcomes closely balanced between top-three and fourth-or-lower rankings. Recent model runs and agency outlooks show above-average but not uniformly record September temperatures, while year-to-date 2026 anomalies sit near prior warm years without a decisive edge. Uncertainty in exact September anomalies and inter-dataset differences sustain the tight market-implied odds near 47–48 percent.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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