Strong semiconductor exports and April’s 48% year-over-year trade surge have lifted trader-implied odds for South Korea’s Q2 2026 GDP growth into the 3.5–4.4% range, with those two buckets commanding the highest combined probability. The Bank of Korea’s 3.6% Q1 YoY print—the fastest pace in five years—stemmed from AI-driven chip demand and 5.1% export growth, prompting institutions such as JP Morgan and KDI to revise full-year forecasts upward to 2.5–3.0%. Counterbalancing factors include soft April employment gains of just 74,000 and 2.6% inflation, which underscore fragile domestic consumption and support lower-band probabilities around 1.5–2.9%. Key upcoming data on May trade figures and global tech orders will likely determine whether the current split between mid-3% and mid-4% outcomes persists ahead of the July 28 advance release.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiSouth Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?
South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?
3.0–3.4% 43%
2.5–2.9% 40.5%
2.0–2.4% 21%
<1.5% 19.2%
BARU
BARU
Jul 23, 2026
<1.5%
19%
1.5–1.9%
47%
2.0–2.4%
21%
2.5–2.9%
40%
3.0–3.4%
24%
3.5–3.9%
51%
4.0–4.4%
44%
4.5%+
25%
3.0–3.4% 43%
2.5–2.9% 40.5%
2.0–2.4% 21%
<1.5% 19.2%
BARU
BARU
Jul 23, 2026
<1.5%
$278 Vol.
19%
1.5–1.9%
$184 Vol.
47%
2.0–2.4%
$351 Vol.
21%
2.5–2.9%
$161 Vol.
40%
3.0–3.4%
$154 Vol.
24%
3.5–3.9%
$319 Vol.
51%
4.0–4.4%
$276 Vol.
44%
4.5%+
$238 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Strong semiconductor exports and April’s 48% year-over-year trade surge have lifted trader-implied odds for South Korea’s Q2 2026 GDP growth into the 3.5–4.4% range, with those two buckets commanding the highest combined probability. The Bank of Korea’s 3.6% Q1 YoY print—the fastest pace in five years—stemmed from AI-driven chip demand and 5.1% export growth, prompting institutions such as JP Morgan and KDI to revise full-year forecasts upward to 2.5–3.0%. Counterbalancing factors include soft April employment gains of just 74,000 and 2.6% inflation, which underscore fragile domestic consumption and support lower-band probabilities around 1.5–2.9%. Key upcoming data on May trade figures and global tech orders will likely determine whether the current split between mid-3% and mid-4% outcomes persists ahead of the July 28 advance release.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Volume
$1,961Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 23, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Strong semiconductor exports and April’s 48% year-over-year trade surge have lifted trader-implied odds for South Korea’s Q2 2026 GDP growth into the 3.5–4.4% range, with those two buckets commanding the highest combined probability. The Bank of Korea’s 3.6% Q1 YoY print—the fastest pace in five years—stemmed from AI-driven chip demand and 5.1% export growth, prompting institutions such as JP Morgan and KDI to revise full-year forecasts upward to 2.5–3.0%. Counterbalancing factors include soft April employment gains of just 74,000 and 2.6% inflation, which underscore fragile domestic consumption and support lower-band probabilities around 1.5–2.9%. Key upcoming data on May trade figures and global tech orders will likely determine whether the current split between mid-3% and mid-4% outcomes persists ahead of the July 28 advance release.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Volume
$1,961Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 23, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong semiconductor exports and April’s 48% year-over-year trade surge have lifted trader-implied odds for South Korea’s Q2 2026 GDP growth into the 3.5–4.4% range, with those two buckets commanding the highest combined probability. The Bank of Korea’s 3.6% Q1 YoY print—the fastest pace in five years—stemmed from AI-driven chip demand and 5.1% export growth, prompting institutions such as JP Morgan and KDI to revise full-year forecasts upward to 2.5–3.0%. Counterbalancing factors include soft April employment gains of just 74,000 and 2.6% inflation, which underscore fragile domestic consumption and support lower-band probabilities around 1.5–2.9%. Key upcoming data on May trade figures and global tech orders will likely determine whether the current split between mid-3% and mid-4% outcomes persists ahead of the July 28 advance release.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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