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icon for US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
PolitikΒ·Gencatan Senjata Iran

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

icon for US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
PolitikΒ·Gencatan Senjata Iran

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

$35,205,741 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$35,205,741 Vol.

Polymarket

June 12

$1,037,516 Vol.

6%

June 15

$484,046 Vol.

11%

June 30

$1,900,156 Vol.

44%

July 31

$378,590 Vol.

64%

This market will resolve to β€œYes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to β€œYes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that β€œthe ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that β€œthe United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire β€œuntil the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely β€œremains in effect” or β€œcontinues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that β€œthe ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are β€œgetting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a β€œYes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran. This market will resolve to β€œYes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to β€œYes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that β€œthe ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that β€œthe United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire β€œuntil the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely β€œremains in effect” or β€œcontinues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that β€œthe ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are β€œgetting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a β€œYes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran. US-Iran negotiations center on extending the April 2026 ceasefire amid the ongoing conflict, with recent talks focusing on a potential 60-day truce, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and limits on Iran's nuclear program. In late May, negotiators reached a tentative framework pending approval, though exchanges of strikes in early June tested the fragile truce and highlighted sticking points including Lebanese operations and uranium enrichment demands. President Trump has described a final agreement as imminent while maintaining military readiness, and Iranian officials continue seeking concessions before advancing nuclear discussions. These diplomatic and military developments shape trader assessments of whether a new US announcement on extension or broader terms will occur within coming weeks.

This market will resolve to β€œYes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to β€œYes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.

A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either:

1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended.

2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue.

Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify.

The following would qualify:
- President Trump announcing that β€œthe ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.”
- An official U.S. statement announcing that β€œthe United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.”
- President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire β€œuntil the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.”
- An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify.

The following would not qualify:
- Statements that the ceasefire merely β€œremains in effect” or β€œcontinues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement.
- Statements that β€œthe ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached
- Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are β€œgetting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement.

An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a β€œYes” resolution.

This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.
Volume
$35,205,741
Pasar Dibuka
May 25, 2026, 11:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to β€œYes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to β€œYes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that β€œthe ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that β€œthe United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire β€œuntil the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely β€œremains in effect” or β€œcontinues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that β€œthe ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are β€œgetting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a β€œYes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.
This market will resolve to β€œYes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to β€œYes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that β€œthe ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that β€œthe United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire β€œuntil the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely β€œremains in effect” or β€œcontinues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that β€œthe ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are β€œgetting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a β€œYes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran. This market will resolve to β€œYes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to β€œYes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that β€œthe ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that β€œthe United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire β€œuntil the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely β€œremains in effect” or β€œcontinues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that β€œthe ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are β€œgetting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a β€œYes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran. US-Iran negotiations center on extending the April 2026 ceasefire amid the ongoing conflict, with recent talks focusing on a potential 60-day truce, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and limits on Iran's nuclear program. In late May, negotiators reached a tentative framework pending approval, though exchanges of strikes in early June tested the fragile truce and highlighted sticking points including Lebanese operations and uranium enrichment demands. President Trump has described a final agreement as imminent while maintaining military readiness, and Iranian officials continue seeking concessions before advancing nuclear discussions. These diplomatic and military developments shape trader assessments of whether a new US announcement on extension or broader terms will occur within coming weeks.

This market will resolve to β€œYes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to β€œYes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.

A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either:

1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended.

2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue.

Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify.

The following would qualify:
- President Trump announcing that β€œthe ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.”
- An official U.S. statement announcing that β€œthe United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.”
- President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire β€œuntil the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.”
- An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify.

The following would not qualify:
- Statements that the ceasefire merely β€œremains in effect” or β€œcontinues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement.
- Statements that β€œthe ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached
- Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are β€œgetting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement.

An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a β€œYes” resolution.

This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.
Volume
$35,205,741
Pasar Dibuka
May 25, 2026, 11:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to β€œYes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to β€œYes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that β€œthe ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that β€œthe United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire β€œuntil the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely β€œremains in effect” or β€œcontinues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that β€œthe ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are β€œgetting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a β€œYes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 17 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "July 31" di 64%, diikuti oleh "June 30" di 44%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 64Β’ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 64% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?" telah menghasilkan $35.2 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada May 23, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?," jelajahi 17 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?" adalah "July 31" di 64%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 64% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "June 30" di 44%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang β€” termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.