This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia's May 12 test launch of the nuclear-capable RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile from Plesetsk, announced by President Putin for deployment by year-end, underscores strategic nuclear modernization after New START's February 2026 expiration but does not qualify as a nuclear detonation under market criteria. Defense Minister Belousov's recent proposals to ready Novaya Zemlya infrastructure, alongside early May Kura range exercises, heighten speculation amid CTBTO warnings of potential non-adherence to testing norms. Moscow maintains it will resume only if other nuclear powers do, upholding a de facto moratorium since 1990 despite Ukraine war escalation rhetoric. Trader consensus reflects low probabilities due to verification challenges, sanctions, and diplomatic pressures, with further ICBM trials as key upcoming catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Russia's May 12 test launch of the nuclear-capable RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile from Plesetsk, announced by President Putin for deployment by year-end, underscores strategic nuclear modernization after New START's February 2026 expiration but does not qualify as a nuclear detonation under market criteria. Defense Minister Belousov's recent proposals to ready Novaya Zemlya infrastructure, alongside early May Kura range exercises, heighten speculation amid CTBTO warnings of potential non-adherence to testing norms. Moscow maintains it will resume only if other nuclear powers do, upholding a de facto moratorium since 1990 despite Ukraine war escalation rhetoric. Trader consensus reflects low probabilities due to verification challenges, sanctions, and diplomatic pressures, with further ICBM trials as key upcoming catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
May 7 2026
Russia uses nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile in massive strike on Ukraine
September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
Russia launched a massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine, including the use of the nuclear-capable Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. While this demonstrated Russia’s willingness to deploy nuclear-capable weapons, no nuclear test was reported, and the strike was conventional in nature, influencing market perceptions downward for a nuclear test occurring soon.
May 6 2026
Russia and Ukraine envoys meet in Abu Dhabi for US-brokered peace talks
Diplomatic talks between Russia and Ukraine, brokered by the U.S., aimed at ending the nearly four-year war, signaled ongoing efforts to avoid escalation including nuclear testing. The talks coincided with the expiration of the last nuclear arms treaty, reinforcing market expectations against a nuclear test by Russia in the near term.
Apr 29 2026
Russia’s nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles enter active service in Belarus
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
Russia announced that its nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system had entered active service in Belarus, demonstrating enhanced nuclear delivery capabilities. This development raised concerns about nuclear escalation but did not indicate an actual nuclear test, contributing to market uncertainty and price adjustments.
Apr 13 2026
U.S. imposes naval blockade on Iranian ports amid fragile ceasefire with Iran
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%
The U.S. military blockade of Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz raised regional tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, increasing global security concerns but not directly implicating Russia in nuclear testing. This heightened geopolitical risk may have influenced market perceptions of nuclear escalation risks generally.
Apr 2 2026
Russia launches massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine including nuclear-capable missile
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
On April 2, 2026, Russia conducted a large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine, using a nuclear-capable intermediate-range ballistic missile. While this demonstrated Russia's nuclear-capable strike capability, it was not a nuclear test, contributing to market price drops as fears of an actual nuclear test diminished.
Apr 2 2026
No credible reports of Russia conducting nuclear test amid heightened tensions
December 31, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
Despite military escalations and deployment of nuclear-capable weapons, no credible reports or confirmations emerged of Russia conducting a nuclear test during the analysis window. This absence of evidence led to a significant market reassessment and price decline for the likelihood of a nuclear test by Russia by the listed dates.
Apr 1 2026
Russia deploys nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles in Belarus amid Ukraine conflict
September 30, 2026 drops to 46%5%
On April 1, 2026, Russia announced that its nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system had entered active service in Belarus, signaling a strategic military escalation. This deployment raised concerns about potential nuclear use but did not constitute a nuclear test, leading to initial market uncertainty reflected in prices around this date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia's May 12 test launch of the nuclear-capable RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile from Plesetsk, announced by President Putin for deployment by year-end, underscores strategic nuclear modernization after New START's February 2026 expiration but does not qualify as a nuclear detonation under market criteria. Defense Minister Belousov's recent proposals to ready Novaya Zemlya infrastructure, alongside early May Kura range exercises, heighten speculation amid CTBTO warnings of potential non-adherence to testing norms. Moscow maintains it will resume only if other nuclear powers do, upholding a de facto moratorium since 1990 despite Ukraine war escalation rhetoric. Trader consensus reflects low probabilities due to verification challenges, sanctions, and diplomatic pressures, with further ICBM trials as key upcoming catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Russia's May 12 test launch of the nuclear-capable RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile from Plesetsk, announced by President Putin for deployment by year-end, underscores strategic nuclear modernization after New START's February 2026 expiration but does not qualify as a nuclear detonation under market criteria. Defense Minister Belousov's recent proposals to ready Novaya Zemlya infrastructure, alongside early May Kura range exercises, heighten speculation amid CTBTO warnings of potential non-adherence to testing norms. Moscow maintains it will resume only if other nuclear powers do, upholding a de facto moratorium since 1990 despite Ukraine war escalation rhetoric. Trader consensus reflects low probabilities due to verification challenges, sanctions, and diplomatic pressures, with further ICBM trials as key upcoming catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
May 7 2026
Russia uses nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile in massive strike on Ukraine
September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
Russia launched a massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine, including the use of the nuclear-capable Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. While this demonstrated Russia’s willingness to deploy nuclear-capable weapons, no nuclear test was reported, and the strike was conventional in nature, influencing market perceptions downward for a nuclear test occurring soon.
May 6 2026
Russia and Ukraine envoys meet in Abu Dhabi for US-brokered peace talks
Diplomatic talks between Russia and Ukraine, brokered by the U.S., aimed at ending the nearly four-year war, signaled ongoing efforts to avoid escalation including nuclear testing. The talks coincided with the expiration of the last nuclear arms treaty, reinforcing market expectations against a nuclear test by Russia in the near term.
Apr 29 2026
Russia’s nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles enter active service in Belarus
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
Russia announced that its nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system had entered active service in Belarus, demonstrating enhanced nuclear delivery capabilities. This development raised concerns about nuclear escalation but did not indicate an actual nuclear test, contributing to market uncertainty and price adjustments.
Apr 13 2026
U.S. imposes naval blockade on Iranian ports amid fragile ceasefire with Iran
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%
The U.S. military blockade of Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz raised regional tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, increasing global security concerns but not directly implicating Russia in nuclear testing. This heightened geopolitical risk may have influenced market perceptions of nuclear escalation risks generally.
Apr 2 2026
Russia launches massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine including nuclear-capable missile
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
On April 2, 2026, Russia conducted a large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine, using a nuclear-capable intermediate-range ballistic missile. While this demonstrated Russia's nuclear-capable strike capability, it was not a nuclear test, contributing to market price drops as fears of an actual nuclear test diminished.
Apr 2 2026
No credible reports of Russia conducting nuclear test amid heightened tensions
December 31, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
Despite military escalations and deployment of nuclear-capable weapons, no credible reports or confirmations emerged of Russia conducting a nuclear test during the analysis window. This absence of evidence led to a significant market reassessment and price decline for the likelihood of a nuclear test by Russia by the listed dates.
Apr 1 2026
Russia deploys nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles in Belarus amid Ukraine conflict
September 30, 2026 drops to 46%5%
On April 1, 2026, Russia announced that its nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system had entered active service in Belarus, signaling a strategic military escalation. This deployment raised concerns about potential nuclear use but did not constitute a nuclear test, leading to initial market uncertainty reflected in prices around this date.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan
"Uji coba nuklir Rusia oleh...?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 6 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "31 Desember 2026" di 8%, diikuti oleh "30 September 2026" di 5%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 8¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 8% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.
Per hari ini, "Uji coba nuklir Rusia oleh...?" telah menghasilkan $1.4 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Nov 5, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.
Untuk trading di "Uji coba nuklir Rusia oleh...?," jelajahi 6 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.
Ini adalah pasar yang sangat terbuka. Pemimpin saat ini untuk "Uji coba nuklir Rusia oleh...?" adalah "31 Desember 2026" di hanya 8%, dengan "30 September 2026" mengejar ketat di 5%. Tanpa hasil yang menguasai mayoritas kuat, trader melihat ini sebagai sangat tidak pasti, yang bisa menghadirkan peluang trading unik. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time, jadi tandai halaman ini untuk menyaksikan bagaimana probabilitas berkembang.
Aturan resolusi untuk "Uji coba nuklir Rusia oleh...?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.
Ya. Kamu tidak perlu trading untuk tetap terinformasi. Halaman ini berfungsi sebagai pelacak langsung untuk "Uji coba nuklir Rusia oleh...?." Probabilitas hasil diperbarui secara real-time saat trade baru masuk. Kamu bisa menandai halaman ini dan memeriksa bagian komentar untuk melihat apa yang dikatakan trader lain. Kamu juga bisa menggunakan filter rentang waktu pada grafik untuk melihat bagaimana peluang bergeser seiring waktu. Ini jendela real-time gratis tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.
Peluang Polymarket ditetapkan oleh trader nyata yang menaruh uang nyata di balik keyakinan mereka, yang cenderung menghasilkan prediksi yang akurat. Dengan $1.4 million diperdagangkan pada "Uji coba nuklir Rusia oleh...?," harga-harga ini mengumpulkan pengetahuan dan keyakinan kolektif dari ribuan peserta — sering kali mengalahkan jajak pendapat, prakiraan ahli, dan survei tradisional. Pasar prediksi seperti Polymarket memiliki rekam jejak akurasi yang kuat, terutama saat event mendekati tanggal resolusinya. Misalnya, Polymarket memiliki skor akurasi satu bulan sebesar 94%. Untuk statistik terbaru tentang akurasi prediksi Polymarket, kunjungi halaman akurasi di Polymarket.
Untuk melakukan trade pertamamu di "Uji coba nuklir Rusia oleh...?," daftar akun Polymarket gratis dan isi dengan crypto, kartu kredit atau debit, atau transfer bank. Setelah akunmu terisi, kembali ke halaman ini, pilih hasil yang ingin kamu trading, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu baru di pasar prediksi, klik link "Cara kerjanya" di bagian atas halaman Polymarket mana pun untuk panduan langkah demi langkah tentang cara trading.
Di Polymarket, harga setiap hasil mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Harga 8¢ untuk "31 Desember 2026" di pasar "Uji coba nuklir Rusia oleh...?" berarti trader secara kolektif percaya ada sekitar peluang 8% bahwa "31 Desember 2026" akan menjadi hasil yang benar. Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" di 8¢ dan hasilnya benar, kamu menerima $1,00 per saham — keuntungan 92¢ per saham. Jika salah, saham tersebut bernilai $0.
Tanggal berakhir pasar "Uji coba nuklir Rusia oleh...?" telah lewat, tetapi pasar belum diselesaikan secara resmi. Tanggal berakhir menunjukkan kapan event yang mendasarinya diperkirakan terjadi atau dapat diketahui. Ini bukan saat trading berhenti. Pasar tetap terbuka untuk trading sampai hasilnya diselesaikan secara resmi melalui proses resolusi. Kamu masih bisa membeli, menjual, atau menutup posisimu saat pasar menunggu resolusi. Periksa pelacak status resolusi dan bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini untuk pembaruan tentang jadwal resolusi.
Pasar "Uji coba nuklir Rusia oleh...?" memiliki diskusi yang berkembang dengan 7 komentar di mana trader berbagi analisis, memperdebatkan hasil, dan membahas perkembangan terkini. Scroll ke bawah ke bagian komentar untuk membaca apa yang dipikirkan peserta lain. Kamu juga bisa memfilter berdasarkan "Top Holder" untuk melihat posisi trader terbesar pasar, atau periksa tab "Aktivitas" untuk feed real-time dari trade.
Polymarket adalah pasar prediksi terbesar di dunia, di mana kamu bisa tetap terinformasi dan mendapatkan keuntungan dari pengetahuanmu tentang event dunia nyata. Trader membeli dan menjual saham pada hasil untuk topik mulai dari politik dan pemilu hingga crypto, keuangan, olahraga, teknologi, dan budaya, termasuk pasar seperti "Uji coba nuklir Rusia oleh...?." Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time yang didukung oleh keyakinan finansial, sering kali memberikan sinyal yang lebih cepat dan lebih akurat daripada jajak pendapat, pakar, atau survei tradisional.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan