The strong 90.5% market-implied probability for “No” on U.S. government removal of public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026 reflects the rapid resolution of the June 2026 export-control dispute over Claude Mythos 5 and Fable 5. After a brief nationwide disablement triggered by national-security concerns around jailbreak risks, the Commerce Department lifted restrictions once Anthropic implemented additional safeguards and committed to future coordination. Subsequent Claude 5.5 family releases, including Opus 5.5, Sonnet 5.5, and Haiku 5.5 in September and October, have proceeded without similar interventions. Separate Pentagon supply-chain disputes center on military-use guardrails rather than broad public access. A renewed removal would require fresh evidence of high-risk capabilities in an unreleased model that prompts new Commerce action before year-end.