Recent U.S. trade data show monthly goods-and-services deficits hovering near $57–60 billion through early 2026, consistent with the market’s tight clustering between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion bins. Persistent tariffs imposed in 2025 continue to raise import costs and prompt supply-chain shifts away from China, yet retaliatory measures and higher input prices have also weighed on export growth. A rebound in domestic demand, including AI-driven capital-goods imports, has offset some of the compression, while a gradually depreciating dollar supports exports. CBO projections anticipate the deficit narrowing as a share of GDP through 2034, but nominal outcomes remain sensitive to the pace of economic recovery, further tariff adjustments, and global growth. This balance of offsetting forces keeps the two leading intervals nearly even and leaves room for separation if import surges or export weakness intensify later in the year.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$20,984 Vol.
$20,984 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
7%
500–600B
6%
600–700B
5%
700–800B
10%
800–900B
42%
900B–1T
36%
1T–1.1T
9%
1.1T+
5%
$20,984 Vol.
$20,984 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
$16,636 Vol.
7%
500–600B
$413 Vol.
6%
600–700B
$435 Vol.
5%
700–800B
$455 Vol.
10%
800–900B
$1,008 Vol.
42%
900B–1T
$971 Vol.
36%
1T–1.1T
$441 Vol.
9%
1.1T+
$624 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data show monthly goods-and-services deficits hovering near $57–60 billion through early 2026, consistent with the market’s tight clustering between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion bins. Persistent tariffs imposed in 2025 continue to raise import costs and prompt supply-chain shifts away from China, yet retaliatory measures and higher input prices have also weighed on export growth. A rebound in domestic demand, including AI-driven capital-goods imports, has offset some of the compression, while a gradually depreciating dollar supports exports. CBO projections anticipate the deficit narrowing as a share of GDP through 2034, but nominal outcomes remain sensitive to the pace of economic recovery, further tariff adjustments, and global growth. This balance of offsetting forces keeps the two leading intervals nearly even and leaves room for separation if import surges or export weakness intensify later in the year.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$20,984Tanggal Berakhir
Feb 28, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data show monthly goods-and-services deficits hovering near $57–60 billion through early 2026, consistent with the market’s tight clustering between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion bins. Persistent tariffs imposed in 2025 continue to raise import costs and prompt supply-chain shifts away from China, yet retaliatory measures and higher input prices have also weighed on export growth. A rebound in domestic demand, including AI-driven capital-goods imports, has offset some of the compression, while a gradually depreciating dollar supports exports. CBO projections anticipate the deficit narrowing as a share of GDP through 2034, but nominal outcomes remain sensitive to the pace of economic recovery, further tariff adjustments, and global growth. This balance of offsetting forces keeps the two leading intervals nearly even and leaves room for separation if import surges or export weakness intensify later in the year.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$20,984Tanggal Berakhir
Feb 28, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. trade data show monthly goods-and-services deficits hovering near $57–60 billion through early 2026, consistent with the market’s tight clustering between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion bins. Persistent tariffs imposed in 2025 continue to raise import costs and prompt supply-chain shifts away from China, yet retaliatory measures and higher input prices have also weighed on export growth. A rebound in domestic demand, including AI-driven capital-goods imports, has offset some of the compression, while a gradually depreciating dollar supports exports. CBO projections anticipate the deficit narrowing as a share of GDP through 2034, but nominal outcomes remain sensitive to the pace of economic recovery, further tariff adjustments, and global growth. This balance of offsetting forces keeps the two leading intervals nearly even and leaves room for separation if import surges or export weakness intensify later in the year.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan