Recent diplomatic developments have kept the prospects for a follow-up US-Iran meeting tightly balanced between Pakistan and the possibility of no qualifying talks by June 30. Pakistan hosted the first round of direct negotiations in Islamabad during April amid efforts to sustain a fragile ceasefire, and its ongoing mediation role has sustained trader interest in that venue for any resumption. However, subsequent attempts to schedule a second round have stalled, with Iranian officials citing insufficient trust and rejecting proposals tied to nuclear and sanctions issues. This uncertainty has supported the near-even split in market pricing, as traders weigh Pakistan’s geographic and diplomatic proximity against the risk that unresolved tensions prevent further engagement before the deadline. Upcoming signals from back-channel diplomacy or official statements could quickly shift probabilities in either direction.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiDi mana pertemuan diplomatik AS - Iran berikutnya akan berlangsung?
Tidak Ada Pertemuan sebelum 30 Juni 49.1%
Pakistan 43.5%
Lainnya 2.4%
Swiss 1.9%
$6,442,152 Vol.
$6,442,152 Vol.
Tidak Ada Pertemuan sebelum 30 Juni
49%
Pakistan
43%
Lainnya
2%
Swiss
2%
Oman
1%
Qatar
1%
Austria
<1%
AS
<1%
Turki
<1%
Mesir
<1%
Italia
<1%
Iran
<1%
Irak
<1%
Lainnya - Timur Tengah/Afrika Utara
<1%
Lainnya - Eropa
<1%
Arab Saudi
<1%
Rusia
<1%
UEA
<1%
Kazakhstan
<1%
Tidak Ada Pertemuan sebelum 30 Juni 49.1%
Pakistan 43.5%
Lainnya 2.4%
Swiss 1.9%
$6,442,152 Vol.
$6,442,152 Vol.
Tidak Ada Pertemuan sebelum 30 Juni
49%
Pakistan
43%
Lainnya
2%
Swiss
2%
Oman
1%
Qatar
1%
Austria
<1%
AS
<1%
Turki
<1%
Mesir
<1%
Italia
<1%
Iran
<1%
Irak
<1%
Lainnya - Timur Tengah/Afrika Utara
<1%
Lainnya - Eropa
<1%
Arab Saudi
<1%
Rusia
<1%
UEA
<1%
Kazakhstan
<1%
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 12, 2026, 4:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent diplomatic developments have kept the prospects for a follow-up US-Iran meeting tightly balanced between Pakistan and the possibility of no qualifying talks by June 30. Pakistan hosted the first round of direct negotiations in Islamabad during April amid efforts to sustain a fragile ceasefire, and its ongoing mediation role has sustained trader interest in that venue for any resumption. However, subsequent attempts to schedule a second round have stalled, with Iranian officials citing insufficient trust and rejecting proposals tied to nuclear and sanctions issues. This uncertainty has supported the near-even split in market pricing, as traders weigh Pakistan’s geographic and diplomatic proximity against the risk that unresolved tensions prevent further engagement before the deadline. Upcoming signals from back-channel diplomacy or official statements could quickly shift probabilities in either direction.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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