Anthropic commands a 72.4% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, where it holds the #1 spot with a 1503 Elo score as of mid-May. Released April 16, this large language model outperforms prior versions and rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Instant (launched May 5) and Google's Gemini 3.1 in agentic tasks, coding, and reasoning benchmarks, reflecting Anthropic's rapid iteration—major updates every two months amid fierce competition. Google trails at 16% on hints of imminent Gemini upgrades post-I/O, while OpenAI's 8% share tempers recent gains amid pricing pressures. Traders eye late-June releases or leaderboard shifts as key catalysts, underscoring prediction markets' wisdom-of-crowds efficiency in volatile AI races.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 72.4%
Google 17%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 2.5%
$5,766,429 Vol.
$5,766,429 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
72%
17%
OpenAI
8%
xAI
2%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 72.4%
Google 17%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 2.5%
$5,766,429 Vol.
$5,766,429 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$823,340 Vol.
72%
$503,234 Vol.
17%
OpenAI
$330,115 Vol.
8%
xAI
$1,053,484 Vol.
2%
Meta
$127,160 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$493,047 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$153,508 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$293,269 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$360,397 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$350,769 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$462,676 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$143,766 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$149,069 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$371,283 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$151,745 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands a 72.4% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, where it holds the #1 spot with a 1503 Elo score as of mid-May. Released April 16, this large language model outperforms prior versions and rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Instant (launched May 5) and Google's Gemini 3.1 in agentic tasks, coding, and reasoning benchmarks, reflecting Anthropic's rapid iteration—major updates every two months amid fierce competition. Google trails at 16% on hints of imminent Gemini upgrades post-I/O, while OpenAI's 8% share tempers recent gains amid pricing pressures. Traders eye late-June releases or leaderboard shifts as key catalysts, underscoring prediction markets' wisdom-of-crowds efficiency in volatile AI races.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Pasar Dibuka: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$5,766,429Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands a 72.4% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, where it holds the #1 spot with a 1503 Elo score as of mid-May. Released April 16, this large language model outperforms prior versions and rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Instant (launched May 5) and Google's Gemini 3.1 in agentic tasks, coding, and reasoning benchmarks, reflecting Anthropic's rapid iteration—major updates every two months amid fierce competition. Google trails at 16% on hints of imminent Gemini upgrades post-I/O, while OpenAI's 8% share tempers recent gains amid pricing pressures. Traders eye late-June releases or leaderboard shifts as key catalysts, underscoring prediction markets' wisdom-of-crowds efficiency in volatile AI races.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$5,766,429Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic commands a 72.4% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, where it holds the #1 spot with a 1503 Elo score as of mid-May. Released April 16, this large language model outperforms prior versions and rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Instant (launched May 5) and Google's Gemini 3.1 in agentic tasks, coding, and reasoning benchmarks, reflecting Anthropic's rapid iteration—major updates every two months amid fierce competition. Google trails at 16% on hints of imminent Gemini upgrades post-I/O, while OpenAI's 8% share tempers recent gains amid pricing pressures. Traders eye late-June releases or leaderboard shifts as key catalysts, underscoring prediction markets' wisdom-of-crowds efficiency in volatile AI races.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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