Trader consensus heavily favors "None in 2026" at 81% implied probability because leading large language models remain clustered just below the 1550 Elo threshold on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard. As of mid-August 2026, Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 sit at 1510–1511 after June releases that delivered strong gains in reasoning and agentic tasks, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and xAI’s Grok-4.6 trail at 1507–1509. No model has crossed 1550 despite rapid iteration, and the limited calendar time left makes a late-year surge improbable. Anthropic’s modest 12% edge reflects its current leaderboard lead and consistent benchmark improvements, whereas lower odds for Google, OpenAI, and others capture slower recent momentum and the high bar for further capability jumps in the remaining months.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNone in 2026 81%
Anthropic 13%
Google 7.4%
OpenAI 2.4%
$114,213 Vol.
$114,213 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
81%
Anthropic
13%
7%
OpenAI
2%
xAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Mistral
<1%
None in 2026 81%
Anthropic 13%
Google 7.4%
OpenAI 2.4%
$114,213 Vol.
$114,213 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
$25,038 Vol.
81%
Anthropic
$13,930 Vol.
13%
$10,858 Vol.
7%
OpenAI
$13,071 Vol.
2%
xAI
$8,897 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$9,533 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$10,681 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$12,731 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$9,474 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus heavily favors "None in 2026" at 81% implied probability because leading large language models remain clustered just below the 1550 Elo threshold on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard. As of mid-August 2026, Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 sit at 1510–1511 after June releases that delivered strong gains in reasoning and agentic tasks, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and xAI’s Grok-4.6 trail at 1507–1509. No model has crossed 1550 despite rapid iteration, and the limited calendar time left makes a late-year surge improbable. Anthropic’s modest 12% edge reflects its current leaderboard lead and consistent benchmark improvements, whereas lower odds for Google, OpenAI, and others capture slower recent momentum and the high bar for further capability jumps in the remaining months.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volume
$114,213Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus heavily favors "None in 2026" at 81% implied probability because leading large language models remain clustered just below the 1550 Elo threshold on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard. As of mid-August 2026, Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 sit at 1510–1511 after June releases that delivered strong gains in reasoning and agentic tasks, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and xAI’s Grok-4.6 trail at 1507–1509. No model has crossed 1550 despite rapid iteration, and the limited calendar time left makes a late-year surge improbable. Anthropic’s modest 12% edge reflects its current leaderboard lead and consistent benchmark improvements, whereas lower odds for Google, OpenAI, and others capture slower recent momentum and the high bar for further capability jumps in the remaining months.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$114,213Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors "None in 2026" at 81% implied probability because leading large language models remain clustered just below the 1550 Elo threshold on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard. As of mid-August 2026, Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 sit at 1510–1511 after June releases that delivered strong gains in reasoning and agentic tasks, while OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and xAI’s Grok-4.6 trail at 1507–1509. No model has crossed 1550 despite rapid iteration, and the limited calendar time left makes a late-year surge improbable. Anthropic’s modest 12% edge reflects its current leaderboard lead and consistent benchmark improvements, whereas lower odds for Google, OpenAI, and others capture slower recent momentum and the high bar for further capability jumps in the remaining months.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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