The market assigns the highest probability to no AI company reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena in 2026 because current leading large language models remain well below that threshold despite rapid iteration. Anthropic holds the strongest implied odds among individual labs due to Claude models' consistent benchmark gains and demonstrated strengths in complex reasoning tasks. Google follows with Gemini's multimodal scaling and internal infrastructure advantages, while OpenAI and xAI trail as trader sentiment reflects more incremental recent releases. Key upcoming catalysts include next-generation model launches and arena leaderboard updates through the second half of the year, though historical patterns suggest sustained jumps of this magnitude remain challenging within the remaining timeline.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNone in 2026 57%
Anthropic 32%
Google 11%
OpenAI 3.1%
$54,452 Vol.
$54,452 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
57%
Anthropic
32%
11%
OpenAI
3%
xAI
2%
Mistral
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
None in 2026 57%
Anthropic 32%
Google 11%
OpenAI 3.1%
$54,452 Vol.
$54,452 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
$10,084 Vol.
57%
Anthropic
$6,982 Vol.
32%
$7,388 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$7,444 Vol.
3%
xAI
$5,414 Vol.
2%
Mistral
$3,688 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$4,795 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$4,750 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$3,908 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.The market assigns the highest probability to no AI company reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena in 2026 because current leading large language models remain well below that threshold despite rapid iteration. Anthropic holds the strongest implied odds among individual labs due to Claude models' consistent benchmark gains and demonstrated strengths in complex reasoning tasks. Google follows with Gemini's multimodal scaling and internal infrastructure advantages, while OpenAI and xAI trail as trader sentiment reflects more incremental recent releases. Key upcoming catalysts include next-generation model launches and arena leaderboard updates through the second half of the year, though historical patterns suggest sustained jumps of this magnitude remain challenging within the remaining timeline.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volume
$54,452Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.The market assigns the highest probability to no AI company reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena in 2026 because current leading large language models remain well below that threshold despite rapid iteration. Anthropic holds the strongest implied odds among individual labs due to Claude models' consistent benchmark gains and demonstrated strengths in complex reasoning tasks. Google follows with Gemini's multimodal scaling and internal infrastructure advantages, while OpenAI and xAI trail as trader sentiment reflects more incremental recent releases. Key upcoming catalysts include next-generation model launches and arena leaderboard updates through the second half of the year, though historical patterns suggest sustained jumps of this magnitude remain challenging within the remaining timeline.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$54,452Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The market assigns the highest probability to no AI company reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena in 2026 because current leading large language models remain well below that threshold despite rapid iteration. Anthropic holds the strongest implied odds among individual labs due to Claude models' consistent benchmark gains and demonstrated strengths in complex reasoning tasks. Google follows with Gemini's multimodal scaling and internal infrastructure advantages, while OpenAI and xAI trail as trader sentiment reflects more incremental recent releases. Key upcoming catalysts include next-generation model launches and arena leaderboard updates through the second half of the year, though historical patterns suggest sustained jumps of this magnitude remain challenging within the remaining timeline.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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