Current leaderboard trends show leading large language models (LLMs) from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google clustered between 1500 and 1506 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena, reflecting steady but incremental gains in reasoning and human preference benchmarks that have not accelerated enough to reach the 1550 threshold this year. This positions the 62% market-implied odds on "None in 2026" as a reflection of historical scaling patterns and evaluation volatility. Anthropic holds the clearest edge at 33.5% through recent Claude Opus 4.7 releases that emphasize advanced capabilities and consistent top rankings. Google and OpenAI trail with lower probabilities tied to more measured update cycles. Upcoming model iterations could introduce surprises, yet realistic timelines suggest the 1550 mark remains a stretch before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNone in 2026 58%
Anthropic 34%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.8%
$54,452 Vol.
$54,452 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
58%
Anthropic
34%
11%
OpenAI
3%
xAI
2%
Alibaba
1%
Mistral
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
None in 2026 58%
Anthropic 34%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.8%
$54,452 Vol.
$54,452 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
$10,084 Vol.
58%
Anthropic
$6,982 Vol.
34%
$7,388 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$7,444 Vol.
3%
xAI
$5,414 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$4,750 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$3,688 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$4,795 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$3,908 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Current leaderboard trends show leading large language models (LLMs) from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google clustered between 1500 and 1506 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena, reflecting steady but incremental gains in reasoning and human preference benchmarks that have not accelerated enough to reach the 1550 threshold this year. This positions the 62% market-implied odds on "None in 2026" as a reflection of historical scaling patterns and evaluation volatility. Anthropic holds the clearest edge at 33.5% through recent Claude Opus 4.7 releases that emphasize advanced capabilities and consistent top rankings. Google and OpenAI trail with lower probabilities tied to more measured update cycles. Upcoming model iterations could introduce surprises, yet realistic timelines suggest the 1550 mark remains a stretch before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volume
$54,452Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Current leaderboard trends show leading large language models (LLMs) from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google clustered between 1500 and 1506 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena, reflecting steady but incremental gains in reasoning and human preference benchmarks that have not accelerated enough to reach the 1550 threshold this year. This positions the 62% market-implied odds on "None in 2026" as a reflection of historical scaling patterns and evaluation volatility. Anthropic holds the clearest edge at 33.5% through recent Claude Opus 4.7 releases that emphasize advanced capabilities and consistent top rankings. Google and OpenAI trail with lower probabilities tied to more measured update cycles. Upcoming model iterations could introduce surprises, yet realistic timelines suggest the 1550 mark remains a stretch before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$54,452Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Current leaderboard trends show leading large language models (LLMs) from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google clustered between 1500 and 1506 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena, reflecting steady but incremental gains in reasoning and human preference benchmarks that have not accelerated enough to reach the 1550 threshold this year. This positions the 62% market-implied odds on "None in 2026" as a reflection of historical scaling patterns and evaluation volatility. Anthropic holds the clearest edge at 33.5% through recent Claude Opus 4.7 releases that emphasize advanced capabilities and consistent top rankings. Google and OpenAI trail with lower probabilities tied to more measured update cycles. Upcoming model iterations could introduce surprises, yet realistic timelines suggest the 1550 mark remains a stretch before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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