Trader consensus prices a 91.8% probability against Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, reflecting the absence of formal steps despite recent escalatory rhetoric. Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants in late March 2026, lawmakers and IRGC-affiliated media pushed parliamentary reviews for exit in late March and April, including criticism of IAEA oversight. However, no official notification to the UN—a prerequisite for withdrawal under NPT Article X—has occurred, and as of mid-May, Tehran continues to abide by treaty obligations amid ongoing diplomatic clashes, such as Iran's UN mission statements accusing the U.S. of NPT hypocrisy on May 2. Historical patterns since 2004 show similar threats without action, with barriers including intensified sanctions, isolation from allies, and risks of military escalation outweighing benefits; late-breaking IAEA censure or renewed attacks could shift odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
$121,662 Vol.
$121,662 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$121,662 Vol.
$121,662 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices a 91.8% probability against Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, reflecting the absence of formal steps despite recent escalatory rhetoric. Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants in late March 2026, lawmakers and IRGC-affiliated media pushed parliamentary reviews for exit in late March and April, including criticism of IAEA oversight. However, no official notification to the UN—a prerequisite for withdrawal under NPT Article X—has occurred, and as of mid-May, Tehran continues to abide by treaty obligations amid ongoing diplomatic clashes, such as Iran's UN mission statements accusing the U.S. of NPT hypocrisy on May 2. Historical patterns since 2004 show similar threats without action, with barriers including intensified sanctions, isolation from allies, and risks of military escalation outweighing benefits; late-breaking IAEA censure or renewed attacks could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$121,662Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices a 91.8% probability against Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, reflecting the absence of formal steps despite recent escalatory rhetoric. Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants in late March 2026, lawmakers and IRGC-affiliated media pushed parliamentary reviews for exit in late March and April, including criticism of IAEA oversight. However, no official notification to the UN—a prerequisite for withdrawal under NPT Article X—has occurred, and as of mid-May, Tehran continues to abide by treaty obligations amid ongoing diplomatic clashes, such as Iran's UN mission statements accusing the U.S. of NPT hypocrisy on May 2. Historical patterns since 2004 show similar threats without action, with barriers including intensified sanctions, isolation from allies, and risks of military escalation outweighing benefits; late-breaking IAEA censure or renewed attacks could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$121,662Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 91.8% probability against Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027, reflecting the absence of formal steps despite recent escalatory rhetoric. Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants in late March 2026, lawmakers and IRGC-affiliated media pushed parliamentary reviews for exit in late March and April, including criticism of IAEA oversight. However, no official notification to the UN—a prerequisite for withdrawal under NPT Article X—has occurred, and as of mid-May, Tehran continues to abide by treaty obligations amid ongoing diplomatic clashes, such as Iran's UN mission statements accusing the U.S. of NPT hypocrisy on May 2. Historical patterns since 2004 show similar threats without action, with barriers including intensified sanctions, isolation from allies, and risks of military escalation outweighing benefits; late-breaking IAEA censure or renewed attacks could shift odds.
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