Michigan voters face an automatic ballot question on November 3, 2026, asking whether to convene a constitutional convention for a full revision of the 1963 state constitution. Trader consensus heavily favors rejection at 95.5% implied probability, consistent with prior cycles where voters turned down the measure by margins of 67% or more in 2010, 1994, and 1978. Primary drivers include organized opposition from groups such as Protect MI Constitution from Special Interests, which has raised over $860,000 with no comparable pro-convention campaign finance activity, alongside limited bipartisan momentum and concerns over potential disruption to recent voter-approved provisions on redistricting and other issues. With the election roughly 11 weeks away, realistic paths to passage remain narrow and would likely require substantial late shifts in public sentiment or turnout dynamics not evident in current positioning.