**Trader consensus on "No" at 96.5% reflects the exceptionally high procedural and political barriers to removing any STF justice by impeachment before the end of 2026.** Brazil has never successfully impeached and removed a sitting Supreme Federal Court justice, and the process requires Senate acceptance followed by a two-thirds vote (54 of 81 senators) for conviction. Recent requests, including one against Justice Alexandre de Moraes in August 2026, and earlier CPI recommendations targeting Justices Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and Moraes have not advanced. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has historically shelved such petitions, while Justice Gilmar Mendes’s prior rulings have raised thresholds and limited standing for complaints. The current congressional balance, with allies of President Lula providing support, reinforces the status quo through the brief remaining window. October 2026 Senate elections could shift composition, but new members would not assume office in time to complete any process before 2027. Late-breaking developments such as a major verified scandal or rapid institutional shift remain theoretically possible but face steep practical obstacles given the compressed timeline and established safeguards.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
4% probabilità
$83,913 Vol.
$83,913 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
4% probabilità
$83,913 Vol.
$83,913 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on "No" at 96.5% reflects the exceptionally high procedural and political barriers to removing any STF justice by impeachment before the end of 2026.** Brazil has never successfully impeached and removed a sitting Supreme Federal Court justice, and the process requires Senate acceptance followed by a two-thirds vote (54 of 81 senators) for conviction. Recent requests, including one against Justice Alexandre de Moraes in August 2026, and earlier CPI recommendations targeting Justices Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and Moraes have not advanced. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has historically shelved such petitions, while Justice Gilmar Mendes’s prior rulings have raised thresholds and limited standing for complaints. The current congressional balance, with allies of President Lula providing support, reinforces the status quo through the brief remaining window. October 2026 Senate elections could shift composition, but new members would not assume office in time to complete any process before 2027. Late-breaking developments such as a major verified scandal or rapid institutional shift remain theoretically possible but face steep practical obstacles given the compressed timeline and established safeguards.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$83,913Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on "No" at 96.5% reflects the exceptionally high procedural and political barriers to removing any STF justice by impeachment before the end of 2026.** Brazil has never successfully impeached and removed a sitting Supreme Federal Court justice, and the process requires Senate acceptance followed by a two-thirds vote (54 of 81 senators) for conviction. Recent requests, including one against Justice Alexandre de Moraes in August 2026, and earlier CPI recommendations targeting Justices Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and Moraes have not advanced. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has historically shelved such petitions, while Justice Gilmar Mendes’s prior rulings have raised thresholds and limited standing for complaints. The current congressional balance, with allies of President Lula providing support, reinforces the status quo through the brief remaining window. October 2026 Senate elections could shift composition, but new members would not assume office in time to complete any process before 2027. Late-breaking developments such as a major verified scandal or rapid institutional shift remain theoretically possible but face steep practical obstacles given the compressed timeline and established safeguards.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$83,913Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on "No" at 96.5% reflects the exceptionally high procedural and political barriers to removing any STF justice by impeachment before the end of 2026.** Brazil has never successfully impeached and removed a sitting Supreme Federal Court justice, and the process requires Senate acceptance followed by a two-thirds vote (54 of 81 senators) for conviction. Recent requests, including one against Justice Alexandre de Moraes in August 2026, and earlier CPI recommendations targeting Justices Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and Moraes have not advanced. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has historically shelved such petitions, while Justice Gilmar Mendes’s prior rulings have raised thresholds and limited standing for complaints. The current congressional balance, with allies of President Lula providing support, reinforces the status quo through the brief remaining window. October 2026 Senate elections could shift composition, but new members would not assume office in time to complete any process before 2027. Late-breaking developments such as a major verified scandal or rapid institutional shift remain theoretically possible but face steep practical obstacles given the compressed timeline and established safeguards.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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