Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20, 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election place the CDU at 19–20 percent, with INSA, Civey, and Infratest dimap surveys from July and August showing the party in a tight contest alongside Die Linke, AfD, and the Greens. The CDU’s earlier decline from the low-to-mid 20s coincided with the July withdrawal of incumbent mayor Kai Wegner as lead candidate and his replacement by Stefan Evers, a move that produced only a modest rebound. Traders price the under-20 percent outcome slightly above even because current aggregates sit at or below the threshold amid a fragmented field where no two-party coalition reaches a majority and turnout dynamics remain uncertain.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSopra
44% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
20 set 2026
Sopra
44% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
20 set 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20, 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election place the CDU at 19–20 percent, with INSA, Civey, and Infratest dimap surveys from July and August showing the party in a tight contest alongside Die Linke, AfD, and the Greens. The CDU’s earlier decline from the low-to-mid 20s coincided with the July withdrawal of incumbent mayor Kai Wegner as lead candidate and his replacement by Stefan Evers, a move that produced only a modest rebound. Traders price the under-20 percent outcome slightly above even because current aggregates sit at or below the threshold amid a fragmented field where no two-party coalition reaches a majority and turnout dynamics remain uncertain.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Mercato aperto: Aug 20, 2026, 2:19 PM ET
Volume
$541Data di fine
20 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20, 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election place the CDU at 19–20 percent, with INSA, Civey, and Infratest dimap surveys from July and August showing the party in a tight contest alongside Die Linke, AfD, and the Greens. The CDU’s earlier decline from the low-to-mid 20s coincided with the July withdrawal of incumbent mayor Kai Wegner as lead candidate and his replacement by Stefan Evers, a move that produced only a modest rebound. Traders price the under-20 percent outcome slightly above even because current aggregates sit at or below the threshold amid a fragmented field where no two-party coalition reaches a majority and turnout dynamics remain uncertain.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$541Data di fine
20 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20, 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election place the CDU at 19–20 percent, with INSA, Civey, and Infratest dimap surveys from July and August showing the party in a tight contest alongside Die Linke, AfD, and the Greens. The CDU’s earlier decline from the low-to-mid 20s coincided with the July withdrawal of incumbent mayor Kai Wegner as lead candidate and his replacement by Stefan Evers, a move that produced only a modest rebound. Traders price the under-20 percent outcome slightly above even because current aggregates sit at or below the threshold amid a fragmented field where no two-party coalition reaches a majority and turnout dynamics remain uncertain.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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