Recent polling for Berlin's September 20 state election shows a fragmented contest with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered between roughly 13% and 20%, producing frequent shifts in projected seat order. This narrow spread among mid-tier parties sustains elevated trader probabilities around 50% for several outcomes in the 4th-place market, while larger parties like AfD and SPD carry lower implied chances of landing exactly fourth. Late-summer surveys from INSA and Civey confirm ongoing volatility without a decisive breakaway, underscoring how small turnout or preference swings among urban voters could reorder the middle of the field before election day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoI Verdi 48%
AfD 18%
Linke 16%
BSW 14%
NUOVO
NUOVO
20 set 2026
I Verdi
48%
AfD
18%
Linke
16%
BSW
14%
SPD
13%
FDP
10%
CDU
13%
FW
7%
I Verdi 48%
AfD 18%
Linke 16%
BSW 14%
NUOVO
NUOVO
20 set 2026
I Verdi
$1,357 Vol.
48%
AfD
$20 Vol.
18%
Linke
$20 Vol.
16%
BSW
$20 Vol.
14%
SPD
$20 Vol.
13%
FDP
$61 Vol.
10%
CDU
$20 Vol.
13%
FW
$68 Vol.
7%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling for Berlin's September 20 state election shows a fragmented contest with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered between roughly 13% and 20%, producing frequent shifts in projected seat order. This narrow spread among mid-tier parties sustains elevated trader probabilities around 50% for several outcomes in the 4th-place market, while larger parties like AfD and SPD carry lower implied chances of landing exactly fourth. Late-summer surveys from INSA and Civey confirm ongoing volatility without a decisive breakaway, underscoring how small turnout or preference swings among urban voters could reorder the middle of the field before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Mercato aperto: Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$1,586Data di fine
20 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling for Berlin's September 20 state election shows a fragmented contest with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered between roughly 13% and 20%, producing frequent shifts in projected seat order. This narrow spread among mid-tier parties sustains elevated trader probabilities around 50% for several outcomes in the 4th-place market, while larger parties like AfD and SPD carry lower implied chances of landing exactly fourth. Late-summer surveys from INSA and Civey confirm ongoing volatility without a decisive breakaway, underscoring how small turnout or preference swings among urban voters could reorder the middle of the field before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$1,586Data di fine
20 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Berlin's September 20 state election shows a fragmented contest with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered between roughly 13% and 20%, producing frequent shifts in projected seat order. This narrow spread among mid-tier parties sustains elevated trader probabilities around 50% for several outcomes in the 4th-place market, while larger parties like AfD and SPD carry lower implied chances of landing exactly fourth. Late-summer surveys from INSA and Civey confirm ongoing volatility without a decisive breakaway, underscoring how small turnout or preference swings among urban voters could reorder the middle of the field before election day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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