Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show Die Linke leading with roughly 19–22 percent while CDU and AfD remain tightly clustered at 17–20 percent, producing the narrowest spreads for second place. Trader positioning reflects this volatility, with CDU and AfD holding the clearest implied probabilities amid shifting survey leads and the SPD’s continued decline to around 12–15 percent. Local dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU–SPD coalition, candidate changes within the CDU, and AfD’s broader national momentum have kept second-place momentum fluid, while the five-percent threshold and potential coalition math further compress distinctions among mid-tier parties. No single event has yet produced sustained separation, leaving the outcome sensitive to final-week turnout and any late polling movement.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCDU 37%
AfD 32%
Linke 24%
Grüne 8%
$23,794 Vol.
$23,794 Vol.
20 set 2026
CDU
37%
AfD
32%
Linke
24%
Grüne
8%
SPD
3%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
BSW
<1%
CDU 37%
AfD 32%
Linke 24%
Grüne 8%
$23,794 Vol.
$23,794 Vol.
20 set 2026
CDU
$3,211 Vol.
37%
AfD
$5,376 Vol.
32%
Linke
$5,880 Vol.
24%
Grüne
$4,186 Vol.
8%
SPD
$3,060 Vol.
3%
FDP
$686 Vol.
<1%
FW
$640 Vol.
<1%
BSW
$755 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show Die Linke leading with roughly 19–22 percent while CDU and AfD remain tightly clustered at 17–20 percent, producing the narrowest spreads for second place. Trader positioning reflects this volatility, with CDU and AfD holding the clearest implied probabilities amid shifting survey leads and the SPD’s continued decline to around 12–15 percent. Local dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU–SPD coalition, candidate changes within the CDU, and AfD’s broader national momentum have kept second-place momentum fluid, while the five-percent threshold and potential coalition math further compress distinctions among mid-tier parties. No single event has yet produced sustained separation, leaving the outcome sensitive to final-week turnout and any late polling movement.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Mercato aperto: Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ET
Volume
$23,794Data di fine
20 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show Die Linke leading with roughly 19–22 percent while CDU and AfD remain tightly clustered at 17–20 percent, producing the narrowest spreads for second place. Trader positioning reflects this volatility, with CDU and AfD holding the clearest implied probabilities amid shifting survey leads and the SPD’s continued decline to around 12–15 percent. Local dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU–SPD coalition, candidate changes within the CDU, and AfD’s broader national momentum have kept second-place momentum fluid, while the five-percent threshold and potential coalition math further compress distinctions among mid-tier parties. No single event has yet produced sustained separation, leaving the outcome sensitive to final-week turnout and any late polling movement.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$23,794Data di fine
20 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show Die Linke leading with roughly 19–22 percent while CDU and AfD remain tightly clustered at 17–20 percent, producing the narrowest spreads for second place. Trader positioning reflects this volatility, with CDU and AfD holding the clearest implied probabilities amid shifting survey leads and the SPD’s continued decline to around 12–15 percent. Local dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU–SPD coalition, candidate changes within the CDU, and AfD’s broader national momentum have kept second-place momentum fluid, while the five-percent threshold and potential coalition math further compress distinctions among mid-tier parties. No single event has yet produced sustained separation, leaving the outcome sensitive to final-week turnout and any late polling movement.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti