Lula's commanding lead in Paraíba for the October 25 second round stems from his first-round statewide result of 61.31% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 33.07%, with the president winning every municipality. Multiple September polls, including Quaest and AtlasIntel, showed Lula ahead by 23–34 points in head-to-head scenarios, driven by strong support among lower-income and female voters plus alignment with the re-elected state governor. These outcomes reflect consistent regional preferences and limited late shifts in a polarized contest. While a major national event or turnout surge could narrow margins, the 28-point first-round gap and polling stability underpin the market's assessment of Lula's position.