Mailza Assis (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 following Gladson Cameli’s departure for a Senate bid, secured 49.76% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, advancing to the October 25 runoff against Alan Rick (Republicanos) at 32.27%. She prevailed in 19 of 22 municipalities, including the capital, reflecting broad coalition backing from parties including MDB, PL, and União Brasil, plus voter preference for administrative continuity. Pre-election surveys from Quaest and Real Time Big Data showed her maintaining or expanding leads in the closing weeks. Trader consensus at 96.8% for Assis incorporates this first-round margin and expected vote consolidation from eliminated candidates such as Tião Bocalom and Thor Dantas. A decisive shift in the runoff could still occur if Rick consolidates remaining opposition support or if turnout patterns differ markedly from the first round.