Trader consensus prices "No" at 77.5% implied probability for a CDC Level 4 Avoid All Travel notice by December 31, reflecting the absence of any active Level 4 Travel Health Notices on the CDC's official page and stable surveillance data showing no disease with extreme, life-threatening spread. Level 4 designations require sustained high-risk transmission, as seen historically with Ebola; current threats like clade IIb mpox (over 100,000 global cases since 2022 but contained regionally), sporadic H5N1 avian influenza human infections (e.g., recent Cambodia case), and rising dengue remain at Level 2, per CDC assessments. No major escalations in the past 30 days, with low human-to-human transmission rates for novel pathogens, underpin this positioning. Traders await weekly CDC and WHO epidemiological updates, which could shift odds if case clusters surge.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl CDC emette un avviso di livello 4 entro il 31 dicembre?
Il CDC emette un avviso di livello 4 entro il 31 dicembre?
Sì
$71,397 Vol.
$71,397 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$71,397 Vol.
$71,397 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 77.5% implied probability for a CDC Level 4 Avoid All Travel notice by December 31, reflecting the absence of any active Level 4 Travel Health Notices on the CDC's official page and stable surveillance data showing no disease with extreme, life-threatening spread. Level 4 designations require sustained high-risk transmission, as seen historically with Ebola; current threats like clade IIb mpox (over 100,000 global cases since 2022 but contained regionally), sporadic H5N1 avian influenza human infections (e.g., recent Cambodia case), and rising dengue remain at Level 2, per CDC assessments. No major escalations in the past 30 days, with low human-to-human transmission rates for novel pathogens, underpin this positioning. Traders await weekly CDC and WHO epidemiological updates, which could shift odds if case clusters surge.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Volume
$71,397Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 77.5% implied probability for a CDC Level 4 Avoid All Travel notice by December 31, reflecting the absence of any active Level 4 Travel Health Notices on the CDC's official page and stable surveillance data showing no disease with extreme, life-threatening spread. Level 4 designations require sustained high-risk transmission, as seen historically with Ebola; current threats like clade IIb mpox (over 100,000 global cases since 2022 but contained regionally), sporadic H5N1 avian influenza human infections (e.g., recent Cambodia case), and rising dengue remain at Level 2, per CDC assessments. No major escalations in the past 30 days, with low human-to-human transmission rates for novel pathogens, underpin this positioning. Traders await weekly CDC and WHO epidemiological updates, which could shift odds if case clusters surge.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$71,397Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 77.5% implied probability for a CDC Level 4 Avoid All Travel notice by December 31, reflecting the absence of any active Level 4 Travel Health Notices on the CDC's official page and stable surveillance data showing no disease with extreme, life-threatening spread. Level 4 designations require sustained high-risk transmission, as seen historically with Ebola; current threats like clade IIb mpox (over 100,000 global cases since 2022 but contained regionally), sporadic H5N1 avian influenza human infections (e.g., recent Cambodia case), and rising dengue remain at Level 2, per CDC assessments. No major escalations in the past 30 days, with low human-to-human transmission rates for novel pathogens, underpin this positioning. Traders await weekly CDC and WHO epidemiological updates, which could shift odds if case clusters surge.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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