James Martin holds a modest edge in trader consensus for the August 18 Democratic primary in Florida’s 21st Congressional District, reflecting his stronger fundraising, local roots as a fourth-generation Floridian and U.S. Coast Guard veteran, and recent endorsements including from the Palm Beach Post. Bernard Taylor, a firefighter-EMT, remains competitive in a low-profile race against the five-term Republican incumbent Brian Mast in the general election. Multiple other candidates have filed, but limited polling and late-cycle visibility keep their implied probabilities lower. The tight timeline before primary day and absence of major new developments in the past week have stabilized these probabilities around the current levels, with traders weighting Martin’s organizational and veteran-focused advantages most heavily.