Google I/O 2026, scheduled for May 19-20, serves as the main catalyst behind the 90.5% implied probability for a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19. Recent leaks have placed the Flash variant in external benchmarks such as the Eleuther AI Arena, where it demonstrates strong coding, 3D simulation, and low-latency performance at roughly one-fifteenth the inference cost of comparable frontier models. This follows Google’s established cadence of surfacing model strings in API logs and preview channels one to two weeks before a public launch, with the lightweight 3.2 Flash positioned to compete directly against GPT-5.5 equivalents. While the timeline appears tightly aligned, any last-minute technical issues or a decision to rebrand the model as 3.5 could still shift the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoGemini 3.2 released on...?
Gemini 3.2 released on...?
May 19 91%
May 18 4.4%
May 20 4.3%
No release by May 31 1.0%
$310,141 Vol.
$310,141 Vol.
31 mag 2026
May 16
<1%
May 17
<1%
May 18
4%
May 19
91%
May 20
4%
May 21
1%
May 22
1%
May 23
<1%
May 24
<1%
May 25
<1%
May 26
<1%
May 27
<1%
May 28
<1%
May 29
<1%
May 30
<1%
May 31
<1%
No release by May 31
1%
May 19 91%
May 18 4.4%
May 20 4.3%
No release by May 31 1.0%
$310,141 Vol.
$310,141 Vol.
31 mag 2026
May 16
$7,623 Vol.
<1%
May 17
$12,546 Vol.
<1%
May 18
$37,969 Vol.
4%
May 19
$111,550 Vol.
91%
May 20
$17,192 Vol.
4%
May 21
$10,655 Vol.
1%
May 22
$13,145 Vol.
1%
May 23
$4,089 Vol.
<1%
May 24
$4,895 Vol.
<1%
May 25
$3,317 Vol.
<1%
May 26
$3,936 Vol.
<1%
May 27
$4,381 Vol.
<1%
May 28
$3,029 Vol.
<1%
May 29
$2,392 Vol.
<1%
May 30
$6,223 Vol.
<1%
May 31
$5,574 Vol.
<1%
No release by May 31
$20,056 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google I/O 2026, scheduled for May 19-20, serves as the main catalyst behind the 90.5% implied probability for a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19. Recent leaks have placed the Flash variant in external benchmarks such as the Eleuther AI Arena, where it demonstrates strong coding, 3D simulation, and low-latency performance at roughly one-fifteenth the inference cost of comparable frontier models. This follows Google’s established cadence of surfacing model strings in API logs and preview channels one to two weeks before a public launch, with the lightweight 3.2 Flash positioned to compete directly against GPT-5.5 equivalents. While the timeline appears tightly aligned, any last-minute technical issues or a decision to rebrand the model as 3.5 could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Volume
$310,141Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google I/O 2026, scheduled for May 19-20, serves as the main catalyst behind the 90.5% implied probability for a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19. Recent leaks have placed the Flash variant in external benchmarks such as the Eleuther AI Arena, where it demonstrates strong coding, 3D simulation, and low-latency performance at roughly one-fifteenth the inference cost of comparable frontier models. This follows Google’s established cadence of surfacing model strings in API logs and preview channels one to two weeks before a public launch, with the lightweight 3.2 Flash positioned to compete directly against GPT-5.5 equivalents. While the timeline appears tightly aligned, any last-minute technical issues or a decision to rebrand the model as 3.5 could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$310,141Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google I/O 2026, scheduled for May 19-20, serves as the main catalyst behind the 90.5% implied probability for a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19. Recent leaks have placed the Flash variant in external benchmarks such as the Eleuther AI Arena, where it demonstrates strong coding, 3D simulation, and low-latency performance at roughly one-fifteenth the inference cost of comparable frontier models. This follows Google’s established cadence of surfacing model strings in API logs and preview channels one to two weeks before a public launch, with the lightweight 3.2 Flash positioned to compete directly against GPT-5.5 equivalents. While the timeline appears tightly aligned, any last-minute technical issues or a decision to rebrand the model as 3.5 could still shift the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti