Latest ensemble guidance from AEMET and ECMWF converges on a Madrid maximum of 32–34°C for August 23 under stable high pressure, light winds, and mostly clear skies, directly anchoring the market’s heavy weighting toward 33°C and 34°C. These outcomes align with late-August climatology at the Retiro station after earlier summer peaks, where ensemble spread remains minimal and favors little deviation from the median forecast. Minor uncertainties in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could still nudge the observed high by 1°C either way before official verification, while probabilities for outcomes below 32°C or above 35°C stay low absent any unexpected shift in the synoptic pattern. Updated model runs and AEMET bulletins over the next 48 hours will provide the final inputs ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Madrid il 23 agosto?
La temperatura più alta di Madrid il 23 agosto?
33°C 52%
34°C 36%
32°C 7%
35°C 6%
NUOVO
NUOVO
23 ago 2026
29°C or below
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
3%
32°C
7%
33°C
52%
34°C
36%
35°C
6%
36°C
2%
37°C
4%
38°C
4%
39°C or higher
<1%
33°C 52%
34°C 36%
32°C 7%
35°C 6%
NUOVO
NUOVO
23 ago 2026
29°C or below
$42 Vol.
1%
30°C
$17 Vol.
1%
31°C
$5 Vol.
3%
32°C
$44 Vol.
7%
33°C
$26 Vol.
52%
34°C
$65 Vol.
36%
35°C
$47 Vol.
6%
36°C
$15 Vol.
2%
37°C
$45 Vol.
4%
38°C
$10 Vol.
4%
39°C or higher
$146 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble guidance from AEMET and ECMWF converges on a Madrid maximum of 32–34°C for August 23 under stable high pressure, light winds, and mostly clear skies, directly anchoring the market’s heavy weighting toward 33°C and 34°C. These outcomes align with late-August climatology at the Retiro station after earlier summer peaks, where ensemble spread remains minimal and favors little deviation from the median forecast. Minor uncertainties in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could still nudge the observed high by 1°C either way before official verification, while probabilities for outcomes below 32°C or above 35°C stay low absent any unexpected shift in the synoptic pattern. Updated model runs and AEMET bulletins over the next 48 hours will provide the final inputs ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$462Data di fine
23 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble guidance from AEMET and ECMWF converges on a Madrid maximum of 32–34°C for August 23 under stable high pressure, light winds, and mostly clear skies, directly anchoring the market’s heavy weighting toward 33°C and 34°C. These outcomes align with late-August climatology at the Retiro station after earlier summer peaks, where ensemble spread remains minimal and favors little deviation from the median forecast. Minor uncertainties in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could still nudge the observed high by 1°C either way before official verification, while probabilities for outcomes below 32°C or above 35°C stay low absent any unexpected shift in the synoptic pattern. Updated model runs and AEMET bulletins over the next 48 hours will provide the final inputs ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$462Data di fine
23 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble guidance from AEMET and ECMWF converges on a Madrid maximum of 32–34°C for August 23 under stable high pressure, light winds, and mostly clear skies, directly anchoring the market’s heavy weighting toward 33°C and 34°C. These outcomes align with late-August climatology at the Retiro station after earlier summer peaks, where ensemble spread remains minimal and favors little deviation from the median forecast. Minor uncertainties in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could still nudge the observed high by 1°C either way before official verification, while probabilities for outcomes below 32°C or above 35°C stay low absent any unexpected shift in the synoptic pattern. Updated model runs and AEMET bulletins over the next 48 hours will provide the final inputs ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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