Mexico City's high-elevation setting and ongoing rainy season moderate peak temperatures, with climatological August daytime maxima typically ranging 23–25°C and only occasional excursions toward 27–28°C under clearer morning conditions or weaker convection. Current short-range model guidance and the upper bounds of seasonal forecasts support trader emphasis on 27°C and 28°C outcomes, as afternoon showers—common in early August—often cap further warming. Recent observations from late July show similar daily highs clustering near 24–26°C, reinforcing the market-implied distribution while leaving room for modest upward shifts if subsidence or reduced cloud cover develops ahead of the August 2 resolution window.